BD Price Forecast in Next 3 Months Based on Fundamental Data
Introduction: In August 2025, China’s butadiene market prices fluctuated within a narrow range after inching up, with the overall average price rising slightly MoM. Over the next three months, the supply-demand balance may show an expanding-shrinking-expanding trend. China’s butadiene market prices are likely to decrease, with the average prices in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang market expected to be around RMB 9,400/mt, RMB 9,000/mt, and RMB 8,800/mt from September to November.
In August 2025, China’s butadiene prices edged up before fluctuating within a narrow range, and the average price rallied marginally. Taking the Jiangsu-Zhejiang market as an example, the monthly average price was RMB 9,339.49/mt as of August 27, up about 0.14% compared to July’s average of RMB 9,348/mt. A positive macroeconomy bolstered overall commodity price trends, supporting butadiene market sentiment. In North China, the operating rate of new cracking units fell short of expectations, and the butadiene unit at PetroChina Fushun Petrochemical underwent maintenance, reducing the available spot volume. In East China, although imported resources successively arrived in ports, most were allocated to fixed channels, leading to limited spot availability. Additionally, traders were reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost pressures, making it difficult to find low-priced resources in the butadiene market. Meanwhile, price spreads between butadiene and downstream industries remained acceptable throughout the month, with most downstream units operating normally, so rigid demand supported butadiene prices.
Over the next three months, overall supply may increase, gradually weakening support to butadiene prices.
In terms of China’s output, 12 butadiene units are projected to be under maintenance from September to November, with a combined shutdown capacity of 1,095kt/a. In September, unit maintenance will possibly decrease, and output from new units in North China is expected to ramp up. Thus, China’s output is likely to rise significantly compared to August, reaching an estimated 464.2kt, up 3.39% MoM. In October, some of China’s butadiene units will probably continue undergoing maintenance, while others are estimated to be shut down. Therefore, the butadiene output may fall to around 457kt, strengthening supply-side support for butadiene prices. Although additional units may undergo maintenance in November, new units in East China and South China are forecasted to commence production, increasing butadiene output to around 461.3kt and weakening supply-side price support.
In terms of imports, the import volume is anticipated to remain high over the next three months, with monthly import volume estimated at around 40kt. It was heard that transactions for deep-sea cargoes and Southeast Asian resources, which may supplement China’s supply.
China’s demand for butadiene over the next three months is likely to maintain an upward trend, underpinning butadiene prices from the bottom.
In terms of China’s consumption, butadiene demand is projected to increase before declining. In September, consumption is estimated at around 462kt, flat compared to August. Downstream units such as Shandong Haijiang Chemical, TSRC-UBE (Nantong) Chemical Industrial, and Haopu New Materials Technology are forecasted to experience turnarounds during the month, but some other downstream units will possibly run at higher loads, resulting in overall stable butadiene consumption. In October, consumption is estimated at approximately 474kt, providing some demand-side support for butadiene prices. In November, consumption is expected to drop to 460kt, weakening price support.
In terms of exports, China’s export volume of butadiene is likely to remain low from September to November, with monthly volumes estimated at around 2-4kt. Limited overseas demand and few negotiations are expected to provide insignificant support for China’s butadiene market.
Butadiene prices are predicted to fluctuate downward over the next three months.
Overall, the supply-demand balance from September to November is projected to be 38.2kt, 24kt, and 37.3kt, respectively. This balance may first expand, then contract, and then expand again, causing fundamental support for prices to weaken, strengthen, and weaken again. The average butadiene price is expected to be around RMB 9,400/mt, RMB 9,000/mt, and RMB 8,800/mt. As supply gradually increases, fundamental support will probably weaken, and butadiene prices are likely to decline.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
