Oct 2025 China Propane Prices to Rise Slightly
China’s propane prices kept rising in September, backed by many bullish factors. With the market support weakening, the increment in China’s propane prices may be limited.
China’s propane market performed well in September 2025. With temperature declining, the demand for civil-use gas gradually improved, and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm also recovered. Meanwhile, the international LPG price were high, supporting China’s propane market. Moreover, the operating rate of the PDH industry went up, and the propane supply in some regions was lower than expected. Accordingly, China’s propane prices kept rising.
With propane prices rising, the price spread between propane and civil-use gas gradually enlarged, specially in the second half of September. Although some downstream users preferred propane with temperature decline, the price advantage of propane weakened, with the price spread enlarging. Therefore, some downstream users intended to use civil-use gas.
The rising propane prices also put a dampener on chemical-use demand. The feedstock costs at downstream deep-processing plants went up, dragging down PDH unit profits and further weighing on the operation enthusiasm. Although some PDH units were restarted at the end of September, the overall operating rate of the PDH industry was lower than expected. After the National Day holiday, some PDH units may take overhauls, so it is estimated that the demand for propane from the PDH industry may be limited.
The international LPG prices were relatively high at first, so propane CFR East China kept rising. However, the international crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, giving thin support to the international propane market. Moreover, the U.S.-origin resources were sufficient, and the overall market trading declined somewhat with price increment. Accordingly, propane CFR East China fluctuated downward in the second half of September. Market participants may adopt bullish attitudes to October CP, but it may give thin support to China’s propane prices. Additionally, producers intended to cut inventory before the National Day holiday, so most of them adopted cautious attitudes to push up prices.
Entering October, the bullish expectation for CP may give support to China’s propane market, so importers may maintain firm offers. Moreover, some overhauled units may be restarted, so China’s propane output may gradually rise. The overall import arrivals are likely to inch down, and the overall propane supply may be not high accordingly. With the temperature decline, the demand for propane from the civil-use gas market may strengthen. Besides, downstream users may replenish stocks after the National Day holiday. However, the PDH unit profits may underperform with the propane price increments, weighing on the rising prices. Overall, it is predicted that China’s propane prices may inch up in October 2025.
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