China Benzene Prices Followed A Decline-Rally-Decline Pattern

Monthly Summary: China Benzene Prices Followed A Decline-Rally-Decline Pattern in Nov

1. Market Price

Remarks: Data is collected from the beginning of the month to the 26th of the month.

2. Market Review

Oil-based benzene: Benzene prices followed a decline-rally-decline pattern this month. Crude oil fluctuated within a narrow range of $57-62/bbl with a downward trend. Fundamentally, cooling weather dampened end demand for benzene while high inventory levels at secondary downstream sectors continued weighing on product prices across the chain, pushing benzene prices lower in the first half. Subsequently, U.S. gasoline blending demand boosted toluene and xylene prices, and shutdowns of underperforming disproportionation units opened the Asia-U.S. arbitrage window, driving benzene prices higher. However, declining U.S. gasoline and diesel prices and concentrated arrivals at East China ports led to inventory buildup by late November. With fading buying interest, prices retreated again.

Coal-based benzene: In November, the domestic coal-based benzene market experienced fluctuations within a low range. The industry faced significant losses, leading to an increase in unit shutdowns in the first and middle ten days of the month, with a slight recovery in the latter ten days. Enterprise inventories were generally low. The oil-based benzene market also fluctuated at low levels, influenced by mixed factors such as international market trends and inventory levels. Amid mixed bullish and bearish news, the coal-based benzene market saw repeated rises and declines in November, but the overall trading range narrowed.

3. Market Forecast

Remarks: ★★★★ (strong); ★★★ (relatively strong); ★★ (normal); ★★(limited)

Oil-based benzene: Benzene prices are expected to stabilize with a slight weakening trend next month. On the supply side, refinery maintenance remains limited as the year-end approaches, while new units have entered stable operation, leading to increased domestic supply. In terms of imports, December arrivals are projected to remain high, and persistently elevated inventory levels at East China’s main ports will continue to weigh on spot prices. From a demand perspective, styrene inventories are currently at high levels-largely near five-year peaks-while the onset of winter has brought seasonal declines in operating rates across its downstream sectors, posing significant challenges to styrene demand. In the caprolactam sector, severe losses have prompted partial load reductions, which are expected to slow demand for benzene.

Overall, as 2025 draws to a close, downstream and end-user pressures persist, and prices are likely to remain weak through December and January 2026. By February, pre-Spring Festival restocking demand and colder weather - which may constrain the availability of insulated tankers - could restrict the flow of low-priced resources and help support a moderate price rebound.

Coal-based benzene: In December, the coal-based benzene industry saw a slight increase in unit restarts. However, due to ongoing losses, the expected growth in output is likely to remain limited. On the demand side, more downstream plants have resumed operations, suggesting a modest increase in demand over the next three months compared to November. However, a concentrated influx of oil-based benzene shipments is anticipated, with East China potentially facing continued inventory build-up risks, which could put pressure on domestic market prices. In summary, coal-based benzene prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively low levels from December to January. In February, as the Spring Festival approaches, seasonal demand growth may provide support to market prices, creating opportunities for a rebound. The average prices of coal-based benzene in the Shandong market from December to February 2026 are forecasted at RMB 5,150/mt, RMB 5,000/mt, and RMB 5,200/mt, respectively.

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