Scenario Planning: Import Upsurge in Q2 & Q3 Led to Low BD Price
In the first three quarters of 2020, the overall rubber industry chain performed well. From the perspective of the whole industry chain, the operating rate of downstream industries ramped up, mainly due to the profit moving down from the upstream industry to the downstream industry. Newly added butadiene capacity in China was released in succession while the import volume of butadiene in Q2 and Q3 soared, which heavily weighed on China’s butadiene price.
As for the supply, the rubber supply still remained in an uptrend.
From January to September, the butadiene supply increased by 16%, up 7% from January to June. It was mainly affected by the increase in imported butadiene and the release of newly added butadiene capacity. From January to September, the butadiene price dropped by 45% Y-O-Y while climbed by 4% from January to June.
From January to September, the synthetic rubber supply increased by 15% Y-O-Y and 6% from January to June. From January to September, the synthetic rubber price slid by 21% Y-O-Y while up 1% from January to June.
From January to September, the natural rubber supply climbed by 5% Y-O-Y and 6% from January to June. From January to September, the natural rubber price declined by 4% Y-O-Y and 4% from January to June.
The rubber inventory was still at a high level.
