Shandong Independent Refinery Naphtha Market Weekly Review
This week, the naphtha prices at Shandong independent refineries fluctuated within a narrow range. The average price of straight-run naphtha was RMB 6,186/mt, down 0.99% W-O-W, and that of hydrogenated naphtha was RMB 6,369/mt, down 1.15% W-O-W. During this week, the international crude oil prices stayed largely stable. In China, many participants replenished their gasoline inventory for the May Day holiday, and the gasoline prices trended up slightly. However, many refineries wanted cut their naphtha inventory before the holiday, suppressing the naphtha prices to some extent. On the whole, the naphtha prices at Shandong independent refineries mostly fluctuated marginally, and the weekly average price declined W-O-W.
In the future, part of the units at Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical and the CDU at Zibo Kelida Petrochemical will be restarted in H1 May, while Shandong Lijin Petrochemical will shut down all its units for maintenance from April 29. Accordingly, SCI reckons that the future average operating rate of CDUs at Shandong independent refineries will decline further, and the supply of naphtha will shrink as well. As for naphtha demand, the future international crude oil prices are predicted to be stable-to-rising, supporting China’s refined oil market to some extent. Meanwhile, the gasoline consumption will improve during the May Day holiday. Therefore, SCI reckons that next week, supported by the gasoline market, the naphtha prices are estimated to remain largely steady or trend up slightly. Therein, the prices of straight-run naphtha are predicted at RMB 6,000-6,200/mt, while the prices of hydrogenated naphtha are estimated at RMB 6,300-6,400/mt.
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