2021 China Butadiene S&D Pattern Evolution & Future Development
Introduction: In recent five years, there is still a certain gap in China’s butadiene supply. China’s butadiene market continues to face a supply crunch and relies on some imported butadiene resources. At present, China’s butadiene supply and demand remain in an uptrend. In 2021, with China’s newly added butadiene units coming on stream, Chinese-made butadiene resources are sufficient at this period. In 2021, the export volume of butadiene in China notched a record high, but the import volume pared down from 2020.
China’s butadiene capacity and output both rallied, with lower imports Y-O-Y.
In 2021, China’s butadiene capacity continues to expand, and the total capacity of butadiene is estimated at 5,576kt/a, up 14.1% Y-O-Y. As seen from the capacity layout, East China, Northeast China and South China were still the most important markets for butadiene, of which East China still dominated, and the butadiene capacity in South China saw an uptick compared with last year. Rapid release in fresh butadiene capacity narrowed the supply gap of butadiene in China. As seen from the production technology, as the production cost of butene ODH units was high, newly added butadiene units were mainly adopted C4 extraction technology in recent years.
In 2021, the import volume of butadiene in China was dented notably. From January to September 2021, the import volume of butadiene in China reached 182kt, down 55.2% Y-O-Y. From end-2020, newly added butadiene units came on stream in succession, replenishing China’s butadiene supply to some extent. Besides, the cold wave in Q1 resulted in sharp declines in foreign supply. The window for the export of Europe-origin butadiene to the U.S. was closed. The U.S. needed to import a large amount of butadiene from Asia. Asian butadiene market price kept firm, and China’s downstream users showed resistance to high-priced butadiene. Therefore, the import volume of butadiene in China was curtailed notably. Yet, import is still the main mode to replenish China’s butadiene, so market players still pay close attention to the import status.
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