2021 China PX Self-sufficiency Rate Rose Steadily
In recent five years, China’s PX has been in short supply. During 2017-2018, the PX industry had high access threshold with strict requirements on asset, anti-risk ability and process technology. The release of PX capacity was slow and the effective output was low. At the same time, driven by the rapid development of polyester industry, the demand for PX increased significantly, and the imbalance between PX supply and demand in China deepened. It was a watershed in 2019.Supported by national policy and the layout of seven refining and chemical bases, China's large private refining and chemical projects were launched intensively, and the production capacity of PX expanded rapidly. Therefore, the competition between domestic-based PX and imported PX was upgraded, and the supply gap in China's market gradually narrowed. In 2022, the self-sufficiency rate of China's PX market will further improve, and the import dependence will continue to decline.
2017-2021 PX Supply and Demand Balance
According to the supply data, the total supply of PX in China is expected to be 36.4 million mt in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 7.50%. Among them, domestic-based supply accounted for 61.18%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.21%, mainly due to the operation of the new production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II. In 2022, the planned new capacity of PX will reach 11.6 million mt, most of which will be put into operation at the end of the year. It is expected that the total capacity of PX will exceed 40 million mt and the import volume will be reduced to 10 million mt in 2022, making a big step towards the goal of self-sufficiency. According to the demand data, the total demand for PX of PTA enterprises in China is expected to be 34.93 million mt in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5.56%. The demand increment mainly comes from the newly added PTA capacity of Fujian Baihong, Honggang Petrochemical and Yisheng New Materials, with a total capacity of 8.2 million mt/a. In 2022, the downstream PTA capacity will increase by 10.8 million mt/a, which will drive the downstream PX consumption up to 38.11 million mt.
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