H1, 2022 China SBR Price Fluctuated
Introduction: In H1, 2022, China’s SBR market prices repeatedly fluctuated against the backdrop of high costs and soft demand.
Price
According to SCI, in H1, 2022, the average price of ESBR 1502 in the North China market was RMB 12,298/mt, down 7.23% Y-O-Y, and the overall ESBR price in H1, 2022 went lower from 2021. The highest ESBR price in H1, 2022 was RMB 12,925/mt in June, and the lowest was RMB 11,550/mt in May, with a price spread of RMB 1,375/mt.
Supply: China’s SBR output ramped up, and the import volume dwindled in H1, 2022.
China’s SBR total supply was estimated at 851.1kt in H1, 2022, up 5.23% Y-O-Y. Therein, the output was 670.2kt, up 11.27% Y-O-Y, and the import volume was estimated at 180.9kt, down 12.38% Y-O-Y. China’s SBR output rose as driven by profit, the operating rate was maximized. Specifically, the operating rate in Q1, 2022 was over 80%. In Q2, 2022, demand did not improve, weighing on the SBR price uptrend. Moreover, the SBR theoretical profit tended to be negative, leading to a decrease in operating rate. However, the operating rate was still high. China’s SBR import volume declined in H1, 2022, as the import price was higher than the price of Chinese-made SBR amid the steady supply of Chinese-made SBR.
Demand: Decreasing demand restrained SBR price rebound.
In H1, 2022, China’s SBR total demand was estimated at 685.6kt, down 4.52% Y-O-Y. Therein, the actual consumption volume was 642.6kt, down 5.78% Y-O-Y, and the export volume was estimated at 43kt, up 19.32% Y-O-Y. The decrease in tire output lessened the actual demand for SBR, and this further affected the total consumption volume of SBR. In H1, 2022, China’s semi-steel tire output totaled 236.3846 million pieces, down 4.49% Y-O-Y, and China’s all-steel tire output was 58.3545 million pieces, down 14.14% Y-O-Y. The import volume ramped up, as there was certain demand for SBR in Southeast Asia where the operating rate was stable and China’s low SBR prices facilitated exports.
Cost: The high cost kept low-end SBR prices up.
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