East China Saw Higher Import Proportion with Deep-Processing Capacity Expansion
China’s LPG import volume rose year by year, and China’s LPG import dependence degree surpassed 40%. In China, most imported LPG resources were arranged as the feedstock of deep-processing units or fuel. In 2022, deep-processing units were put into operation intensively in East China, so the proportion of LPG import arrivals in East China increased to 43%.
According to GACC’s data, China’s LPG total import volume rose year by year from 2018 to 2022. In 2022, China’s LPG import volume totaled 26,920kt, up 2,140kt or 8.64% Y-O-Y. The imported LPG resource is an important part in China’s LPG supply. In recent years, China’s LPG import dependence degree remained high. In 2022, China’s LPG import dependence degree was 42.76%, up 1.15 percentage points Y-O-Y.
Imported LPG resources arrived in China via VLGC. According to SCI’s shipment data, China’s LPG import arrivals totaled 22,930kt and 24,580kt in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Therein, the LPG import arrivals in East China saw the highest growth. The LPG import arrivals in East China increased from 9,020kt to 10,600kt in 2022, and its proportion rose from 39% to 43%. Meanwhile, the LPG import arrivals in Shandong rallied to 5,620kt in 2022 from 4,610kt, with the proportion rising to 23% from 20%.
The LPG import arrivals in East China and Shandong went up, mainly supported by the deep-processing industry development. According to table below, the LPG import arrivals in regions with more deep-processing units saw notable increments. From 2020 to 2022, the LPG import arrivals in Ningbo rose from 2,130kt to 4,110kt, and that in Yantai increased to 3,600kt from 1,790kt. From 2021 to 2022, the LPG import arrivals in Lianyungang reached 1,220kt, and that in Qingdao increased to 1,070kt from 290kt. Besides, the consumption of imported LPG in fuel field remained largely stable from 2020 to 2022.
According to SCI’s data, the deep-processing units at Ningbo Huatai Shengfu Polymer Material, Wanhua Chemical Group, Jinneng Chemical (Qingdao), Laioning Bora New Material and Fujian Gulei Petrochemical came on stream in 2021, lifting LPG import volume in related regions. From 2020 to 2022, PDH capacity in East China expanded from 4,260kt/a to 6,370kt/a, and that in Shandong increased to 3,350kt/a from 750kt/a. Most PDH units adopt imported propane as feedstock, so the PDH capacity expansion stimulates LPG import increment.
In the future, newly added PDH projects will be concentrated in coastal areas, and it is estimated that the newly added PDH capacity in East China and Shandong will total 13,510kt/a and 10,200kt/a from 2023 to 2027, propping up propane import volume and VLGC arrivals. Moreover, the MA industry development also attracts a lot of eyeballs, as the newly added MA capacity is likely to surpass 5,000kt/a in the next five years, lifting China’s butane import volume. In terms of the fuel field, the fuel-use LPG consumption will probably be relatively stable in the future, but the proportion of LPG consumption in the fuel field may shrink. On the whole, the deep-processing capacity expansion will probably have essential effect towards import arrivals, and it is estimated that the LPG import arrivals in East China will increase rapidly.
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