2023-2027: China Propylene Supply to Witness Higher Growth Rate
Both China’s propylene capacity and output will continue to expand from 2023 to 2027. According to China’s newly added propylene capacity, it is estimated that China’s propylene capacity ang output may total 90 million mt/a and 68 million mt in 2027 respectively. Moreover, China’s propylene import volume will probably further shrink, but the import curtailment may be limited. On the whole, it is predicted that China’s propylene supply will expand rapidly.
Meanwhile, the propylene downstream capacity will continue to expand. In the future, most newly added propylene units are likely to be matched with downstream units, and most matched units are PP units. As for chemical downstream products, there will be a lot of newly added PO, NBA, 2-EH, acrylonitrile, acetone capacity, backed by the relatively favorable profits. Besides, it is estimated that China’s propylene export will go up, exerting more impacts on China’s propylene market. In 2027, China’s actual propylene demand volume will probably reach 67.25 million mt.
From 2023 to 2027, China’s propylene supply growth rate may be higher than demand growth rate, so it is estimated that China’s propylene supply will become surplus. Once China’s propylene supply becomes surplus, the extent of industry prosperity will wane, and the overall market competition will become severer, exerting bearish impacts on China’s propylene prices and production profits.
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