China’s Benzene Supply Gap Still Large Despite Expanding Capacity
In the past five years, the global capacity of benzene has increased steadily, which has led to the vigorous development of the industry, and the market attention has also increased. What changes have been brought to the industry by the surge in global capacity?
The growth rate of global benzene capacity in 2022 reached 4.21%, which was somewhat slower than that in 2021, but still at the relatively high level in recent years. China contributed the largest to the capacity growth. In 2022, China’s benzene capacity increased by 8.223 million mt/a to 20.72 million mt/a, with a CAGR of 9.79%
With the increase of China's aromatics market share in the world, the international trade pattern has also undergone tremendous changes. In 2014, almost no benzene was imported into China. By 2018, China has become the world's largest benzene importer. By 2022, the import volume reached 3.3218 million mt, a record high, and the import dependency has also reached a high of 14.73%.
The continuous development of upstream and downstream integration projects has not only brought about a surge in the capacity of benzene, but also a great change in the downstream demand. This figure below shows the capacity growth of the benzene industry chain.
At the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the total capacity growth rate of benzene and its representative downstream products reached 34.35%. At the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, this indicator reached 79.03%, an increase of 44.68 percentage points. In 2022, this indicator dropped slightly to 63.72%.
The capacity of benzene industrial chain products has changed greatly in recent years, and the profit distribution of the industrial chain has also become one of the topics. In the future, the supply of benzene is still tight, and the industrial chain profits may be concentrated in upstream and midstream links for a period of time.
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