Summary of China PVC Powder Market in H1, 2023
Preface: In H1, 2023, China’s PVC powder prices climbed at the beginning of 2023 and then fluctuated downward affected by oversupply and thinner support from the macro market. In H2, 2023, though the macro environment is expected to improve, SCI reckons that China’s PVC powder market price will hover at lows amid oversupply.
In H1, 2023, China’s PVC powder prices first rose and then fluctuated downward, which showed a different trend from what was predicted in the 2022-2023 China PVC Powder Market Annual Report. First, the economic recovery was slow and failed to meet expectations, giving thinner support to the PVC market. Second, PVC fundamentals underperformed. Up to June 29, 2023, the average self-delivery price of PVC powder (in cash, and with 13% VAT) was RMB 6,090/mt, down 30.45% Y-O-Y. Up to June 29, 2023, the closing price of PVC powder was RMB 5,677/mt, down 8.49% from early 2023.
The highest price of PVC powder reached RMB 6,606/mt in end-January. There were expectations for rapid economic recovery, giving some support to the PVC powder price. Market players held positive attitudes toward the PVC market backed by positive real estate industry-related policies. After that, PVC supply increased with the commissioning of newly added units, while PVC demand was in the doldrums in the long term. Thus, PVC social inventory and plant inventory stayed high amid oversupply. Moreover, the international macro atmosphere underperformed affected by the banking crisis in the U.S. and Europe. As the economic recovery was slow and failed to meet expectations, and the real estate industry was in the doldrums, market players’ sentiments were cautious. Therefore, PVC powder prices fluctuated downward and reached an annual low point.
Fundamentals, costs, and policies were the main factors affecting China’s PVC powder prices in H1, 2023. Against the backdrop of oversupply, PVC powder spot prices showed a downward trend under inventory pressure. PVC powder prices rebounded temporarily backed by bullish factors brought up by the macro economy or dropped further influenced by bearish factors brought up by the macro-economy.
Fundamentals: PVC powder social inventory remained high amid oversupply.
China PVC Powder Fundamentals Key Index in H1, 2023
Unit: kt
Supply: In H1, 2023, the PVC industrial operating rate was lower than that in the same period last year for most of the time mainly due to severe profit losses. A couple of PVC units ran unstably, and the restart of overhauled units was delayed. PVC output loss due to maintenance in H1, 2023 totaled 1,249.13kt, up 235.36kt Y-O-Y. Newly added 1,700kt/a units (the 100kt/a EDC-based PVC unit at Dezhou Shihua Chemical, the 400kt/a calcium carbide-based PVC unit at Shandong Xinfa Chemical, the 400kt/a ethylene-based PVC unit at Guangxi Huayi New Material, the 400kt/a ethylene-based PVC unit at Wanhua (Fujian), the 400kt/a ethylene-based PVC unit at Cangzhou Julong Chemical) were put into operation. The total output of PVC powder in H1, 2023 was 11,188.8kt, slightly lower than the same period last year.
……
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
