Ethanol Exports Rose Notably in Nov
Preface: China’s import volume of ethanol remained low in November 2023, but the export volume increased significantly, mainly due to the growth in exports to some Asian countries. However, the arbitrage window between China and major producing and marketing countries of ethanol remained closed for a long time. In December, the import and export trade was still limited.
According to GACC, China’s import volume of ethanol was only 3.9mt in November 2023. However, the export volume of ethanol was 9504.186mt in November, which was 6.5 times that in October and reached a two-year high. The exports were still mainly undenatured ethanol.
China’s export volume of ethanol in November 2023 mounted noticeably.
According to GACC, China exported 9,504.186mt of ethanol in November 2023. Hereinto, the export volume of undenatured ethanol was 9,423.186mt, up 569.05% MO-M and 2,215.51% Y-O-Y. The export volume of denatured ethanol was 90mt, up 219.24% M-O-M and 208.32% Y-O-Y. From January to November, China’s ethanol exports all focused on undenatured ethanol as the export volume of undenatured ethanol totaled 25,000mt and that of denatured ethanol totaled 223.163mt. In November, China’s ethanol export volume hit a two-year high, but the supply of 95% ethanol was stable and ample, so the export volume had limited influence on supply, demand and price of ethanol.
In terms of trading partners, the top three export destinations of undenatured ethanol were the Philippines, Netherlands and Spain in November, with the export volume accounting for 88.39%, 3.33%, and 1.77% of the total export volume respectively. Hereinto, the export volume to the Philippines rose by 34,431.30% M-O-M. In November, the Philippine Energy Minister stated that the Philippines planned to enhance the proportion of ethanol blends in gasoline from 10% to 20% to reduce gasoline prices. The matter is scheduled to be approved before the end of 2023, and the country’s ethanol demand is expected to continue to increase.
Ethanol import volume remained low in November 2023.
According to GACC, China imported 3.91mt of ethanol in November, down 87.8% Y-O-Y. Among them, the import volume of undenatured ethanol was 1.431mt, and that of denatured ethanol was 2.479mt. There was no arbitrage between China and overseas markets in terms of ethanol import. In November, China’s ethanol prices showed a downtrend amid plentiful supply, and players paid less attention to overseas ethanol resources.
The growth in import and export volume is estimated to be limited in December.
China’s ethanol export volume mounted in November 2023, but that was expected to fluctuate limitedly in December. The arbitrage window between major producing and marketing areas of ethanol and China has not yet formed, and the demand from Asia needs to be focused on. In December, China’s ethanol market was weak overall with ample supply and dropping corn prices. Therefore, the import volume in December may remain low, but some ethanol resources will likely be exported to Europe and some Asian areas.
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