Jan-Aug China Butadiene Imports Level Up
Snapshot: In 2023, China’s butadiene import volume perked up greatly. Despite the release of newly added butadiene units, the overall increment in supply was lower than that in demand, due to intensive units’ maintenance and average loads of crackers. Therefore, the import volume of butadiene in China ramped up notably from last year.
From January to August 2023, the import volume of butadiene in China picked up Y-O-Y.
In the past five years, China’s butadiene import volume first advanced, then slid and finally leveled up. In 2020, the total butadiene import volume hit a 5-year high at 455kt. A large number of deep-sea butadiene cargoes were replenished to the Asian market, so the import volume surged in 2020. In the later period, with China’s butadiene capacity warming up, the dependence on imported shiploads pared down. However, in 2023, China’s butadiene supply saw limited increments. Besides, some foreign resources enjoyed notable price advantages. Therefore, from January to August 2023, the import volume of butadiene reached 270kt roughly, up 234% Y-O-Y.
In 2023, China’s butadiene imports may float up notably from last year. Overall, the import volume of butadiene in H2 may be higher than that in H1, 2023. Especially, in Q3, China’s butadiene import volume notched a record high. In 2023, some downstream enterprises had import contracts, driving up the overall import volume. Besides, foreign butadiene supply was sufficient and enjoyed a price advantage, due to slack demand. China’s buyers were more active in purchasing imported resources, so the import volume surged Y-O-Y.
From January to August 2023, among import trading partners, South Korea-origin butadiene resources accounted for the largest proportion of 35%, up 1% Y-O-Y. The import volume of butadiene from Malaysia and the Middle East ranked second and third respectively. As the butadiene unit at PRefchem ran normally, its resources flowing to China ramped up somewhat. Yet, the import volume of butadiene from the Middle East dwindled greatly. As seen from other regions, China imported butadiene from Southeast Asia, Europe and the U.S. In 2023, deep-sea cargoes were replenished to China’s market notably, up from last year.
From January to August 2023, as seen from butadiene imports by receipt & delivery places, the imported butadiene resources were mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang, accounting for 79% of the total. East China currently has the largest butadiene supply gap. Thereinto, the butadiene tank areas are the most concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where the storage and transportation are relatively convenient.
In Q4, the import volume of butadiene in China may dip from Q3. With units’ maintenance ending, China’s butadiene supply may level up. Besides, in Southeast Asia, available butadiene resources have been relatively limited recently. Besides, there is certain demand for spot butadiene in Japan and South Korea, which may push up Asian market prices. Foreign butadiene resources may lack price advantages, so the import volume of butadiene may trend down.
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