Main Producing Areas in Southeast Asia Usher in Rubber Tapping Season
Introduction: From the perspective of normal seasonality, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia are in a new rubber tapping season. However, the release of feedstock output slows down due to the high temperature and drought in 2024. In the future, as the rain gradually increases, the feedstock output can be expected amid the stimulation of field latex prices on rubber tapping work.
Rubber tapping work status in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia
Taking Thailand and Vietnam as examples, from the perspective of normal seasonality, the main producing areas in Thailand are in the production reduction season from February to April, and with the development of rubber tapping work from May to June, the output gradually increases. Specifically, Northeast Thailand enters the rubber tapping season in mid-to-late April, and South Thailand enters the rubber tapping season in mid-to-late May. In Vietnam, the rubber tapping season is relatively earlier than that in Thailand. The rubber tapping season begins in mid-April, and output gradually rises in May. From January to April, Vietnam’s producing areas are in the seasonal production reduction period, and in May, they are in the transition period.
How do the main producing areas in Vietnam and Thailand perform in a new round of rubber tapping season in 2024?
Main producing areas in Thailand: The rubber tapping work in Northeast Thailand was resumed in mid-to-late April 2024, with rubber trees growing well and feedstock purchase prices being high. However, the high temperature and lack of rain caused unsmooth rubber tapping work, so the feedstock output was low. Entering May, Northeast Thailand received sporadic showers, which slightly eased the local drought. The rubber tapping rate is currently around 50%. The drought was even worse in the Rayong area, and artificial rainfall was implemented to ensure the normal growth of fruits and other crops. However, the output of natural rubber feedstock was still tight. According to recent weather forecasts, rainfall will continue in late May, which may alleviate local drought conditions and facilitate the development of rubber tapping work. South Thailand was still in the suspension period. Rubber trees grew well, but there was not much rain, so there were no conditions for rubber tapping.
Main producing areas in Vietnam: The rubber tapping work in the main producing areas in Vietnam in 2024 was delayed by about half a month. Under normal circumstances, the Xining area should usher in full rubber tapping work in early May, but due to the high temperature and lack of rain, the rubber tapping work was delayed in 2024. After the International Labor Day holiday, the main producing areas received relatively abundant rainfall, so the rubber tapping work was gradually carried out in H1 May. The feedstock output was expected to ramp up notably in H2 May. In the early stage of rubber tapping work, the output of fresh field latex was small and mainly flowed into concentrated latex plants. The local concentrated latex plants have fully resumed production, and the purchase price of field latex is around VND 410/kg/DRC. For SVR3L rubber processing, the cost is too high (the production cost is approximately $1,850/mt, while the Chinese market price acceptance is $1,650-1,670/mt), and the production profit is negative. Therefore, the plants remained in shutdown. It is expected that the plants will resume production in late May as field latex output increases. In early June, the supply of SVR3L rubber to China will pick up.
Rubber trees are growing well, and feedstock output is expected to ascend in the future with more rains and high purchase prices of feedstock.
Taken together, rubber trees in the main producing areas of Thailand and Vietnam are currently growing well and reached conditions for tapping. In addition, the Vietnamese producing areas have received rainfall, and rubber tapping work has been gradually normal. In Thailand, the main producing areas have recently received rainfall in many places, alleviating the drought somewhat. From the weather forecast, rainfall in Thailand’s main producing areas will increase in late May, and the rubber tapping work is expected to gradually begin.
In addition, the current rubber price is attractive for rubber tapping work. According to ROAT, as of May 15, the purchase price of glue in Thailand was THB 75.8/kg. Although it dropped from the high point of THB 81.2/kg in March, it increased by 75.87% compared with THB 43.1/kg in the same period last year. The purchase price was still in the historically high range. Stimulated by the price of feedstock, rubber farmers are highly motivated to tap rubber. Once the phenological conditions improve, the supply of feedstock may be faster. In June, the output of feedstock in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia may show steady growth.
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