2018 China Cracking C5 Supply Forecast

SCI learns that about 1,365kt/a of cracking C5 capacity is planned to be put into operation from 2018 to 2022. The Phase II at CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals, which is planned to be put into use in 2017, is postponed to 2018. Thus, the cracking C5 capacity will increase by 180kt/a in 2018. By the end of 2018, China's cracking C5 capacity will reach 2,480-2,580kt/a. Judging on the average annual operating rate in the past 5 years, the operating rate of China's cracking C5 units is likely to be around 80%. SCI predicts that the aggregate output in 2018 will be 1,800-1,900kt. (With the lightening of feedstock, the actual newly-added capacity will be less than 180kt/a. This report uses 180kt/a temperately)