New Development Opportunities in PC Downstream Industries
As Zhengkai recalled, the president of CSRA and the president of PC association, in the 1980s, China didn’t have PC units, and China had imported 50kt PC from Japan. This is the largest order of China’s imports at that time. After over 30-year rapid development, China has become the largest PC producer in the world. In 2018, the total PC capacity was 1,205kt/a. Zhengkai stressed that the high-quality development of the industry is not the faster the better, but the healthier the better.
In order to promote the high-quality industrial development, the National Development and Reform Commission revised the Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue (2011) (revised) and formed the Catalogue of Guidance for Industrial Restructuring (2019, Draft for Consultation) to solicit comments.
The Catalogue of Guidance for Industrial Restructuring (2019, Draft for Consultation) consists of encouraged projects, limited projects and eliminated projects. However, the 60kt/a or above non-phosgene method PC units are not listed in the encouraged projects. This means China will no longer have incentive policies for PC units in the future.
Since 2015, China’s PC capacity has been released gradually. China’s newly added PC capacity has reached to 495kt/a in recent years. In addition, imported PC accounts for half of China’s total PC supply, and China’s PC market is bothered by the obvious supply-demand imbalance. It is expected that China’s newly added PC capacity will be 4,110kt/a in 2022. At that time, the supply-demand imbalance will bound to be a severe situation.
At that time, although the imported PC will decrease somewhat, the supply will certainly exceed the demand in China’s PC market. As for the national policy, 60kt/a or above non-phosgene method PC units are listed in the encouraged projects. Moreover, considering the present supply-demand imbalance, the supply may be directly restricted by this policy.
Meanwhile, in the encouraged projects, China vigorously promotes the electric vehicles charging facilities and auto parts, which are the downstream products of PC. Therefore, the supply side is controlled effectively, and the demand side is encouraged by the national policy. This will relieve the severe situation of China’s PC supply-demand imbalance to some extent, and this is also a bright development prospect for China’s PC market.
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