【SCI View】Jan to Jul China Diesel Apparent Consumption Volume

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the General Administration of Customs, in July 2019, China’s gasoline apparent consumption volume was 9,871.4kt, down 3.32% from June and down 10.25% from 2018. In July 2019, China’s diesel apparent consumption volume was 12,060kt, up 8.89% from June but down 7.22% from 2018. In July 2019, China’s kerosene apparent consumption volume was 3,361kt, down 3.56% from June but up 3.83% from 2018.

From January to July 2019, China’s total gasoline apparent consumption volume was 73,543kt, up 1.69% from 2018. From January to July 2019, China’s total diesel apparent consumption volume was 81,512kt, down 11.58% from 2018. From January to July 2019, China’s total kerosene apparent consumption volume was 21,830kt, up 2.29% from 2018. On the whole, the gasoline consumption volume growth speed slowed down, while the diesel consumption volume growth became negative. In addition, the kerosene consumption volume grew steadily.

In terms of gasoline, due to the significant decline of automobile sales volume, the growth speed of gasoline consumption volume slowed down.

Automobile industry shared the largest proportion in the gasoline consumption structure, and almost 90% of the gasoline resources were consumed by automobiles. Therefore, the development of automobile industry was closely associated with the gasoline consumption volume. In the first half of 2019, China’s automobile ownership reached 250 million units, up 9.17% from 2018. The continuous growth of automobile ownership provided the basic support to the growth of gasoline consumption volume.

However, the growth speed of automobile ownership was slowing down. According to the statistics released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to July 2019, the production volume of automobiles reached 13,933 thousand units, down 13.5% from 2018, while the sales volume of automobiles reached 14,142 thousand units, down 11.4% from 2018. Meanwhile, the new energy automobile industry developed rapidly, intensifying the competitions in the market. From January to July 2019, the production volume and sales volume of new energy automobiles reached 701 thousand units and 699 thousand units, up 39.1% and 40.9% from 2018 respectively.

Moreover, China is planning to prohibit the sales of fuel automobiles in the future, and Hainan province has announced that it will fully prohibit the sales of fuel automobiles from 2030. As a consequence, the future sales volume of fuel automobiles will drop, and the automobile industry’s support to the gasoline consumption volume will weaken dramatically.

As for diesel, with the transformation of economic structure, the growth of diesel consumption volume remained negative.

In the last several years, the growth speed of China’s economy kept slowing down, and the secondary industry's share of GDP showed a downward trend. Therefore, the diesel consumption volume growth kept declining.

Meanwhile, clean energy such as LNG became a strong alternative to diesel. According to the data in 2018, the average cost of trucks ran on LNG was lower than the trucks ran on diesel. The sluggish diesel demand also made many refineries declined their diesel/gasoline output ratio. From January to July 2019, the output of diesel in China dropped over 7% from 2018, and SCI reckons that the growth speed of China’s diesel consumption volume will stay negative in 2019.

In terms of kerosene, with the rapid development of air transportation industry, the consumption volume of kerosene grew steadily.

According to the statistics released by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, from January to July 2019, the total ridership by air in China reached 381 million, up 8.7% from 2018. The stable and rapid development of China’s air transportation industry dramatically supported the demand for jet fuel.



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