【SCI View】China Natural Gas Import Hit 9.46 MMt in November

China Natural Gas Import Hit 9.46 MMt in November

According to CGAC’s recent released data, China’s natural gas import reached 9.5 million tons in November 2019, the second high monthly record in history in arrears of January 2019 at 9.81 million tons. The import volume jumped 45% from October’s unusual crash, but the year-on-year growth was only around 3%, less than expected. The YTD import growth rate reached 7.5%, with LNG growth at 13.2% but PNG growth at -0.5%.

SCI estimated that the LNG import was around 6.3 million tons, up over 50% M-O-M and around 4%-5% Y-O-Y, and the PNG import was around 3.2 million tons, up 30% M-O-M and 1% Y-O-Y. The estimation is based on the historical data, import flows and market speculations. According to this, it is believed the import market resumes normal to winter mode from October’s crash, but the annual growth rate is disappointing.

However, CNPC’s Rudong Terminal only resumed normal cargo receiving in late November, whilst CREP started to work in early December. Moreover, LNG importers increased buying activities as terminal regas ran at high loads and LNG plants faced feedgas troubles. Therefore, it is believed the import volume will continue to rise in December 2019, and we may witness the first 10 million tons per month import record then.

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