Dec Witnessed Decline in China Methanol Import Volume
December witnessed an obvious decline in China’s methanol import volume. Besides the low prices in China, intensive production outages in certain area of the Middle East and demurrage of cargoes were also important influencing factors. Meanwhile, the export volume rose notably, as the arbitrage window between China and other regions remained open.
China’s methanol import volume is estimated at 807.1kt, down 246.2kt or 23.38% M-O-M. Some imported cargoes originally scheduled to arrive in late December or end-December were delayed to early January, so the actual volume of import arrivals was less than expected. In addition, the export volume is estimated at 15kt, mainly flowing into India for arbitrage. The import volume from certain aera in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, certain area in South America and Chile increased in December, with 467kt from certain area of the Middle East, 101kt from Saudi Arabia and 42kt from Chile. In addition, there was basically no cargo from Oman, Malaysia, Indonesia and Trinidad in December. In terms of arrival area, the volume of cargoes arriving in Nanjing rose by 115.5kt from November. However, influenced by the maintenance of important methanol units n Zhejiang and the declines in traditional downstream demand, the volume of cargoes arriving in Ningbo fell to 60kt, down 133.5kt or 68.99% from November.
In addition, more cargoes were changed unloading ports in December, and most were changed from downstream plants to public storage areas. It is estimated that the volume of imported cargoes changed unloading ports is around 140kt in December.
Influenced by some factors, the unloading cycle of most imported cargoes originally scheduled to arrive in late December and end-December was delayed to early January. In addition, from early December, the supply in most regions of the world rose gradually, but the demand declined. It is predicted that China’s methanol import volume will increase in January, especially the cargoes from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and the inventory at China’s main ports may build up gradually in H2 January. It is estimated that the import volume will be 960-970kt in January, and the export volume will be 8-10kt.
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