February Natural Rubber Prices Inched Down
Market Price
Market Review
From February 1 to February 24, the monthly average NR price index increased from January. SCI NR price index was 1,150.39 points as of February 24, up 18.46 or 1.63% from January 28.
As of February 25, the monthly average price of Shanghai natural rubber futures decreased M-O-M. Price of RU2205 was closed at RMB 13,955/mt, and price of NR2205 was closed at RMB 11,825/mt.
In February, Shanghai natural rubber futures prices increased slightly at first and then showed large declines. RU2205 prices hovered at RMB 13,900-14,800/mt and averaged RMB 14,330/mt, down 2.64% M-O-M and down 0.67% Y-O-Y. In early February, supported by the rising commodity prices and international natural rubber prices, China’s natural rubber prices also rebounded after the Spring Festival holiday. However, the downstream demand improved slowly, and the inventory in Qingdao went up, weighing down the natural rubber prices. At the end of February, natural rubber prices went down in line with the overall commodity market.
Market Forecast
Next month, natural rubber market price will fluctuate in the range of RMB 14,000-15,000/mt.
Supply: Given the natural rubber supply seasonality, the foreign natural rubber production will remain at the production off season in March, and there will be rubber tapping in Yunnan in March. Given the insufficient containers, it is estimated that the import arrivals will delay.
Demand: In March, operating rates at tire enterprises will continue to rise. The production enthusiasm will perform well in the wake of inventory decline, so the demand for natural rubber will recover.
On the whole, the overall natural rubber prices will rebound in March. As seen from supply and demand fundamentals, the import arrivals will delay due to the insufficient containers, and the demand for natural rubber will gradually improve with the rising downstream operating rates. Accordingly, the decline in natural rubber prices will be limited. On the whole, it is estimated that China’s natural rubber prices will fluctuate upward and hover at RMB 14,000-15,000/mt in March.
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