May 2022 China SBR Import and Export Data Interpretation
Introduction: In May 2022, China’s SBR import volume was 33.5kt, up 18.52% M-O-M and up 2.57% Y-O-Y. China’s SBR export volume was 12kt, up 76.39% M-O-M and up 112.4% Y-O-Y.
May M-O-M and Y-O-Y increase in China SBR import volume
GACC’s data showed that China’s SBR import volume was 33.5kt in May, up 18.52% M-O-M and up 2.57% Y-O-Y. From January to May 2022, China’s SBR import volume totaled 147.9 kt, down 16.58% Y-O-Y. In terms of China’s SBR output and demand volume, the SBR supply was abundant from January to May, and the output was 498kt, up 14.51% Y-O-Y. As for demand, China’s semi-steel tire output totaled 194.5809 million pieces from January to May, down 6.58% Y-O-Y. According to SCI’s supply and demand data, from January to May, the SBR supply ramped up, while the semi-steel tire output significantly dropped. Faced with weak supply and demand in China, arbitrage operation was weak because of the high prices of SBR imports.
China’s import origins changed amid a large price difference
GACC’s data showed that China’s top five import origins in May were Russia, South Korea, Singapore, Germany and Thailand. Therein, China’s SBR import volume from Russia changed the most, and it was 7.6kt in May, up 1,325.41% M-O-M and up 179.36% Y-O-Y. The import price from Russia was $1,436.20/mt, and the lower price contributed to China’s import trade. As for China’s SBR imports by trade mode in May, the import volume via processing trade with imported materials occupied the largest proportion of 38.26%, and that via general trade ranked second and took up about 29%. Some customers with manuals had low import costs. Considering the cost advantage, their import volume had certain stability.
May M-O-M and Y-O-Y increase in China SBR export volume
GACC’s data showed that China’s SBR export volume was 12kt in May, up 76.39% M-O-M and up 112.4% Y-O-Y. From January to May 2022, China’s SBR export volume totaled 33kt, up 10.15% Y-O-Y. In May, China’s SBR export volume notably increased, notching a record high since 2012. On the one hand, SBR resources ordered by some Southeast Asian downstream plants arrived at ports successively in May, and the local downstream operating rate was relatively stable, so there was rigid demand for SBR. On the other hand, China’s SBR prices had advantages, and the depreciation of RMB also facilitated China’s SBR exports.
Southeast Asia remained to be China’s main export destination in May.
China’s top 5 SBR export destinations in May were Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia, with the total export volume of 9.5kt, taking up 80% of China’s total SBR export volume. Therein, the export volume to Thailand was the largest mainly as it had certain demand for SBR amid stable operating rates at some local tire enterprises. In terms of the export price, mainstream export prices were $1,700-2,000/mt.
On the whole, in May, China’s SBR supply was relatively abundant, and the price advantage pushed the export volume to hit a new high. The lower import price from Russia contributed to the increase in May import volume.
June to July China SBR import and export forecast
In terms of imports, China’s tire enterprises are under inventory and sales pressure, and the overall operating rate of the tire industry is not high. Therefore, the demand for SBR is predicted to hardly make a breakthrough. In the context that the overall foreign price is relatively high, China’s SBR import volume from June to July is estimated at the normal level of 28-32kt. However, the import volume may be higher than the normal level due to some countries’ lower prices. In terms of the export, China still has the export arbitrage advantage, and the downstream operating rates in Europe, America and Southeast Asia are predicted to be relatively stable, so there will probably be rigid demand for SBR. China’s SBR export market is predicted to continuously improve from June to July, and the export volume is estimated at 8-10kt.
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