How Will Styrene Industrial Chain Import Dependency Rate Change
With the commissioning of new projects in styrene and upstream and downstream markets, the import dependency of various products in the industrial chain has declined since 2020. The capacity growth of the industrial chain will continue to accelerate, and the import dependency rate of various products is expected to further decline. However, some brands of downstream ABS and PS industries will continue to rely on imports.
The profits of styrene and upstream and downstream markets have improved under the impetus of demand growth, and the demand for integrated development of enterprises has increased constantly. Therefore, since the end of the 13th Five Year Plan, new projects in styrene and upstream and downstream industries have gradually increased. After entering the 14th Five Year Plan, the release of new projects in the industrial chain has obviously accelerated, and the import dependency rate of various products has also shown an accelerated downward trend.
2018 is the year with the highest overall import dependency rate of the industrial chain products in the past five years, especially for downstream PS and ABS industries. The import dependency rate of the two products is as high as 28.86% and 34.98% respectively, followed by styrene and benzene, with an import dependency rate of 26.44% and 20.74% respectively. However, from the perspective of change trend of import dependency rate, styrene is different from benzene, PS and ABS.
n the past five years, the import dependency rate of upstream benzene showed a decreasing trend first and then rose, with limited fluctuation. The import dependency rate is expected to be 16.68% in 2022, only 4.06 percentage points lower than that in 2018. The import dependency rate of styrene and downstream PS and ABS showed a significant downward trend. The import dependency rate of styrene in 2022 is expected to be 6.74%, 19.70 percentage points lower than that in 2018. It is the product with the largest decline in the import dependency rate of the industrial chain, and the decline is expanding year by year. The import dependence of downstream PS and ABS also declined notably compared with that of 2018, but the decline was only 10.05 percentage points and 11.92 percentage points respectively.
As a national standard product, Chinese-origin styrene can replace imported goods more quickly than downstream PS and ABS. There are many brands of PS and ABS, and their applications are different. In addition, some brands are subject to the trade mode of processing with imported materials, technical barriers and other factors. In the short term, it is difficult for domestic brands to quickly substitute for imported goods. Accordingly, the decline of import dependency rate will be very slow.
In the next five years, the import dependency rate of benzene may remain stable, because the new projects of downstream products such as styrene and CPL will be more than those of benzene. The supply of domestic benzene products may be tight, so it needs to be supplemented by imported goods. The import dependency rate of styrene will further decline. In 2027, the import dependency rate may drop to 1.52%. The supply is mainly Chinese-origin goods, as new styrene units will continue to be put into production. The import dependency rate of PS and ABS will further decline. In 2027, the import dependency rate will drop to 5.38% and 6.51% respectively, still maintaining a certain amount of imports.
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