May PBR Imports & Exports Rose with Limited Structural Change
Snapshot: In May, China’s PBR import volume remained high. The major increment was credited to the imports from Russia. The PBR export volume changed slightly. The change in China’s PBR imports and exports in May and its reasons were analyzed as follows.
In May, China’s PBR import volume remained high.
According to GACC, China’s PBR import volume was 22,706.66mt in May 2023, up 2.46% M-O-M and up 80.29% Y-O-Y. From January to May, the total import volume was around 92,253.10mt, up 34.97% Y-O-Y. In H1, 2023, the operating rate at China’s tire enterprises mainly trended at highs, and the overall gross profit of the PBR industry was relatively low. Several China’s PBR units took maintenance intensively, leading to a tight PBR supply in China. The imported resources had a price advantage, driving up traders’ interest in arbitrage. Thus, the PBR import volume remained high in May. From the perspective of trade partners, the increment in May mainly came from Russia.
As seen from the volume of imported PBR from trade partners, Russia, South Korea and Japan were the top 3 in May. Therein, Russia was way ahead. The import volume of PBR from Russia was around 13,227.84mt, up 414.85% Y-O-Y and accounting for 58.26% of the total. South Korea ranked second. The import volume of PBR from South Korea was around 3,395.27mt, down 23.03% Y-O-Y, taking up 14.95% of the total. Japan ranked third. The import volume of PBR from Japan was around 1,945.31mt, up 19.15% Y-O-Y, taking up 8.57% of the total. The volume of imported PBR from Russia ramped up by 31.28% M-O-M.
As for Russia, China’s import volume of PBR from Russia was 13,227.84mt in May, up 31.28% M-O-M and up 414.85% Y-O-Y. On the one hand, the price of the PBR imported from Russia was relatively low. On the other hand, the structure of Russia’s export trade partners changed. According to GACC, the average import price of the PBR from Russia was $1,324.97/mt, which has some cost advantage. Besides, there was some transit trade in the market, driving up the import volume.
The export volume was stable at a high level.
According to GACC, China’s PBR export volume was 17,013.55mt in May 2023, up 20.55% M-O-M and up 4.97% Y-O-Y. The total export volume from January to May was around 72,190.55mt, up 52.76% Y-O-Y.
In June and July, private PBR enterprises in North China may restart their units in succession, leading to a rise in the PBR supply. Besides, as it is getting hotter, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry is expected to be under pressure, so tire enterprises may purchase PBR slowly. In addition, China’s PBR price showed a downtrend in June, constraining the operation of import traders. Thus, the PBR import volume in June and July is estimated to face headwinds in rising or fall back somewhat. As for the exports, China’s PBR export volume is predicted to remain high in June and July, driven by the expected ample supply of Chinese-made PBR and the recovery in overseas demand.
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