Dec 2023 - Jan 2024 China Methanol Import Volume Interpretation and Forecast
In Q4, 2023, China’s methanol import volume rose year-on-year, with a significant increment in the overall arrivals from a certain country in the Middle East. However, market demand didn’t increase accordingly, and the methanol consumption from coastal MTO and acetic acid plants declined, so the supply in the coastal market remained relatively sufficient. In Q1, 2024, both methanol supply and demand are predicted to shrink, influenced by the intensive methanol production outages in the Middle East and the scheduled MTO unit maintenance in East China. The coastal methanol market prices may move sideways in the near term.
China’s methanol import volume is estimated to reach 4,028.5kt in Q4, 2023, hitting a new high of recent ten years and up 1,135kt or 39.23% Y-O-Y. However, the import volume in December is predicted to decrease by 71.5kt or 5.15% M-O-M to 1,325.6kt.
In terms of import origins, with the methanol plants in a certain country in the Middle East loading cargoes intensively, the arrivals from a certain country in the Middle East is projected to reach 893kt in December, up 91kt or 11.35% M-O-M. However, influenced by logistics issues, China’s low prices, etc., the imports from South America, Europe, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Oman have decreased. The import volume from South America is estimated at 193kt, down 84.1kt or 30.36% M-O-M. The import volume from Europe and the U.S. is predicted at 47.9kt, down 78.9kt or 62.64% M-O-M. Considering the high prices in Southeast Asia, South Korea, etc., overseas methanol plants give preference to sell cargoes to these areas for arbitrage.
In terms of arrival ports, with downstream users stocking up in advance, the volume of import arrivals in South China is estimated at 181kt, up 93kt or 105.68% M-O-M. In Tianjin, influenced by the winter transport logistics efficiency decline in Northwest China, the volume of import arrivals is predicted to rise to 148kt, up 37.5kt or 33.94% M-O-M. However, the import arrivals decreased in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
Currently, there are seven methanol units with an overall capacity of 12,200kt/a under maintenance in the Middle East, and the maintenance capacity takes up 78.66% of the total capacity. However, the maintenance will actually influence the volume of cargoes shipped in H2 January. It is predicted that China’s methanol import volume may reach 1,330-1,340kt in January.
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