2023 PBR Imports & Exports Both Climb
Snapshot: In 2023, China’s PBR imports and exports both trended up. Therein, the total import volume in 2023 increased by over 30%, while the export volume rose by around 25%. The increment in imports was mainly due to the rising proportion of Russian resources, which ranked first among China’s PBR imports.
In 2023, the PBR import volume rose by 30% Y-O-Y.
In 2023, China’s PBR imports rose beyond expectations, which accounted for 15% of China’s total PBR supply and reached 256.2kt, up around 31% Y-O-Y. Since 2022, China’s PBR imports have increased obviously with the change in the trade partners of some European countries. From the perspective of import trade partners, Russia has surpassed Japan and South Korea and has become the largest trade partner of China’s PBR imports since H2, 2022. In 2023, the total import volume of PBR from Russia was over 100kt, monthly averaging around 10kt, which was equal to the monthly output of a China’s PBR unit. Besides, the prices of the PBR resources from Russia were low due to the cost advantages, so the import volume of Russian PBR resources rose steadily.
China’s PBR export volume continued to rise.
In 2023, China’s PBR export volume continued to increase. The annual export volume reached 180.7kt, up 25.7% Y-O-Y. The rise in China’s PBR export volume was mainly due to China’s PBR supply-demand imbalance, the demand from China’s overseas tire enterprises and the higher enthusiasm of China’s tire enterprises for exploring export markets. First, despite the notable rise in China’s demand, the supply-demand imbalance intensified with the new units running steadily and imported resources flowing into China’s market. Second, China’s leading tire enterprises actively built plants overseas, driving up the exports of Chinese-made PBR. Third, there may be over 500kt/a PBR capacity to come online in the future, leading China’s PBR market towards perfect competition. PBR producers seek opportunities in export markets to deal with the severer domestic market competition. Therein, the export volume of PBR to Southeast Asia accounted for around 70%.
In 2024, China’s supply-demand imbalance may still exist, and China’s PBR export volume is expected to hit a new high.
Import: In 2024, China may have around 300kt/a PBR capacity to go into production. China’s total PBR capacity may surpass the SBR capacity. The commissioning of new units may be mostly scheduled in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. China’s PBR output is expected to hit a new high in 2024. Meanwhile, pressured by the supply-demand imbalance, the PBR price is likely to trend down, weakening the price advantages of imported resources. Overall, the import volume may be range-bound in 2024, and the increment is likely to be minor.
Export: China’s tire market competition is expected to remain severe. Many tire enterprises plan to build overseas plants and expand capacity. Meanwhile, China may face a more obvious oversupply of PBR. PBR enterprises will possibly explore export business to balance production and sales. It is predicted that the PBR export volume may continue to rise in 2024.
To conclude, China’s PBR imports may hover at highs and the exports are expected to hit a new high. The net import volume will possibly continue to slide.
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