H2, 2024 China PVC Powder Export Market to Face Uncertainties
Preface: In H1, 2024, China’s PVC powder exports saw a Y-O-Y growth. Chinese-made resources exported to India went up notably, so PVC exported to India took up a higher proportion. India’s demand for China’s PVC exerts a stronger influence on China’s PVC exports. However, the BIS certification may create great uncertainties in China’s PVC export market. Currently, market players hold cautious sentiments to avoid risks.
In H1, 2024, China’s PVC powder exports saw a Y-O-Y growth, and Chinese-made resources exported to India went up notably.
According to GACC, China’s PVC export volume in H1, 2024 reached 1,304.7kt, up 219.3kt or 20.2% Y-O-Y. China’s PVC resources exported to India rose to 717.8kt, up 177.5kt or 32.85% Y-O-Y. China’s PVC resources exported to India took up 55.02% in H1, 2024, up 6.9% Y-O-Y.
China’s PVC powder exports may first rise and then drop from July to August.
The proportion of PVC exported to India saw a gradual increase in recent years. Currently, India is the most important destination for China’s PVC powder exports, so PVC exported to India can directly influence China’s total export volume.
The demand from India is usually relatively weak in July-August affected by the rainy season. However, in 2024, affected by changes in policies, Indian buyers’ purchasing pace may diversify, which may impact China’s PVC export volume in July-August.
On August 24, 2024, the BIS certification will likely come into effect, only PVC resin that has the BIS certification can be exported into India. However, currently, no PVC producers in China have got this certification, which means that China’s PVC resources will not be exported to India after August 24, 2024, if the BIS certification requirements are executed according to the original time. It usually takes 20-30 days for China’s PVC powder to be shipped to India by sea container. Considering the risk that goods without BIS certification may not be able to enter India in the future, some Indian customers purchased more PVC resources in June, intending to complete the entry of goods before BIS certification takes effect. Therefore, most export orders will possibly be delivered from end-June to mid-July, propping up China’s PVC resources exported to India in July.
Entering July, Indian buyers showed lower purchasing enthusiasm because they were worried that the subsequent orders would not arrive in India as expected. Thus, resources exported to India in August may shrink notably.
China’s PVC powder export market may resonate with uncertainties.
Currently, no PVC producers in China have got this certification, which means that China’s PVC resources will not be exported to India after August 24, 2024, if the BIS certification requirements are executed according to the original time. However, the PVC powder supply gap in India is still relatively obvious, as India exported 1,093.9kt PVC resources from China in 2023, which took up over 30% of the total import. Some market players think that the actual execution time of India BIS certification may be delayed as it is difficult for India to find suitable resources to replace Chinese-made PVC resources. If the actual execution time of India’s BIS certification is delayed, China’s PVC powder exports will likely increase further. On the whole, India’s import policies will likely be the key factor affecting China’s PVC export volume in H2, 2024.
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