Butadiene Supply Expected to Be Sufficient in Jan 2018

Up to now, there are 28 butadiene producers in China, with a total capacity of 3,709kt/a. The investigated ones include the total capacity of 650kt/a, 335kt/a, 1,535kt/a, 650kt/a, 369kt/a and 170kt/a, respectively in 5 producers of Northeast China, 2 producers of North China, 10 producers of East China, 5 producers of South China, 3 producers of Northwest China and 2 producers of Central China.

In December 2017, the operating rate of units at China’s butadiene producers ramped down slightly M-O-M. According to SCI, the average operating rate was 74%, and the monthly output was 237.4kt roughly. The whole operating rate slid within this month, based on the following aspects. The 100kt/a unit at North Huajin Chemical Industries was in a short downtime in late December. The operating rates at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical and PetroChina Dushanzi Petrochemical edged down, which had little impact on the whole operating rate. As for newly added units, the 64kt/a butadiene unit at Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry runs normally in late December, yet the operating rate was low dragging down the whole operating rate. Thus, the operating rate at China’s butadiene producers dropped slightly M-O-M.

As seen from the chart, the operating rate of units at most China’s butadiene producers remained flat in December, accounting for 86% of the total. For production techniques, the operating rate of butene ODH units was around 25%. The 100kt/a butene ODH unit at Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical ran at 50% capacity in December. The 100kt/a butene ODH unit at Jiangsu Sailboat Petrochemical ran at 60% capacity. And the butene ODH unit at Shandong Kenli Petrochemical and the 80kt/a butene ODH unit at Shandong Yuhuang Chemical were both shut down.

Therein, the 50kt/a unit at Puyang BuleStar New Material ran at 60%-70% capacity. The unit at Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry ran normally. The 100kt/a unit at North Huajin Chemical Industries was shut down in late December. The operating rates at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical and PetroChina Dushanzi Petrochemical declined slightly, dragging down the whole operating rate.

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China’s most butadiene units will run normal operation in January 2018. It will be hard to improve for the operating rate at Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical. The units at Shandong Huayu Rubber and Shandong Kenli Petrochemical will continue to be shut in January 2018. No notable changes will be seen in other units. For newly-added units, the butadiene unit at Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry has tested run successively in December, and it will run normally in January. Overall, the whole supply is expected to inch up in January 2018.