Jul PBR Imports & Exports Rise
Snapshot: In July, China’s PBR imports and exports both rebounded to some extent, which were still normal adjustments. This article describes the changes in imports and exports in July and analyzes the reasons behind them.
In July, China’s PBR import volume rebounded, and the net import volume turned positive.
According to GACC, China’s PBR import volume was 19,267.82mt in July, up 18.6% M-O-M but down 24.85% Y-O-Y. From January to July 2024, China’s total PBR import volume reached 155,292.6mt, up 9.13% Y-O-Y. In 2024, the operating rate of China’s tire industry hit a 3-year high. Yet, as for the PBR industry, the overall capacity base enlarged somewhat, but the operating rate was low pressured by profit losses. The PBR output from January to July 2024 trended flat Y-O-Y. Thus, there was still a PBR supply gap in China, triggering a rise in the PBR import volume of ordinary grades. Besides, driven by the rapid development of China’s new energy vehicle industry, the supply of high-end grade PBR was in short supply and needed to be supplemented by imported resources. Thus, China’s PBR imports trended up, and the net import volume remained positive except for that in a few months.
In terms of the import trade partners in July 2024, Russia, South Korea and Japan ranked top 3. Therein, Russia ranked first. The volume of PBR imported from Russia was around 7,420.14mt in July, down 51.41% Y-O-Y, which accounted for 38.51% of the total. South Korea ranked second. That from South Korea was around 3,074.83mt, down 12.62%, which took up 15.96% of the total. Japan ranked third. That from Japan was around 2,213.62mt, down 7.40% Y-O-Y, which accounted for 11.49% of the total. The PBR imports from UAE and Saudi Arabia rose notably.
The export volume edged up.
According to GACC, China’s PBR export volume was 19,188.97mt in July, up 0.76% M-O-M and up 54.88% Y-O-Y. The total export volume was around 136,009.22mt from January to July, up 36.66% Y-O-Y. As for the export trade partners, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia ranked top 3. The volume of PBR exported to Vietnam was around 6,607.35mt, accounting for around 34% of the total.
August and September forecast
Imports: Due to the cost pressure of China’s PBR production, the overall operating rate of the PBR units may be low. The operating rate of downstream all-steel tire industry is in the period of falling, so there may be no new demand for imported ordinary PBR grade resources. As for high-end grades, as China’s new NdBR unit at Zhejiang Transfar Synthetic Materials has come on stream, the increment in the imports of high-end PBR resources is expected to be minor. Therefore, the PBR import volume is predicted to be mainly range-bound in August and September.
Exports: China’s spot PBR resources are relatively tight, but the demand in Southeast Asia may be better than that in China. The previous stable supply contracts are expected to be executed, so the PBR exports are likely to remain high in August and September.
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