China PX Import Data Analysis in Q1, 2024
In the first quarter of 2024, China’s total PX imports were 2.358.4kt, up 5.67% from 2,231.9kt in the first quarter of 2023. The monthly imports from January to March this year were 867kt, 800.3kt and 691.2kt, respectively. The top five trade partners were South Korea, Japan, Taiwan of China, Brunei and Vietnam. Zhejiang-based enterprises received the most imported goods. The most popular trade mode was still the general trade.
South Korea, Japan and Taiwan of China are the old major production and marketing places. In the first quarter, only South Korea’s GS and Japan’s ENEOS had maintenance, and other devices maintained stable operation at high loads Additionally, certain shipments from Taiwan and South Korea were delayed in their customs declarations in December 2023, which led to a considerable rise in import volume in Q1 of 2024. Due to their geographical advantages and the supply imbalance in respective domestic PX markets, Brunei and Vietnam are listed in the top five. The unit maintenance at Hengyi Petrochemical in Brunei in the first quarter affected its export level to China, while Vietnam's production was stable with a high operating load, so its exports to China saw a significant increase.
Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Hainan were the top five provinces that imported the largest PX during the first quarter. Zhejiang is ranked top because of the steady demand for PX from regional PTA enterprises including Zhejiang Yisheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Yisheng New Material. Liaoning ranked second, partially because Northeast China has a significant PX supply shortfall, and also due to Dalian Hengli Petrochemical's large PTA capacity of 11.6 million mt/a. Furthermore, Hainan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu also served as the primary receiving locations. Because of rising purchasing power, PX imports in Zhejiang had a 36.12% increase in Q1 of 2024 over Q4 of 2023. For one thing, local PTA enterprises generally maintained stable production. For another thing, Formosa Chemical Industrial (Ningbo) stocked feedstock for its 1.5 million PTA unit in advance, which achieved a successful run on March 29, 2024.
In terms of trade method, compared with the previous quarter, the share of general trade and processing trade with imported materials increased, while the import and export goods in bonded supervision places showed a downward trend, mainly due to the impact of the national macroeconomic environment and the moderate domestic demand for PX.
It’s expected that the import pattern of China’s PX market in Q2 will be similar to that in Q1. Q2 will encounter the maintenance period of Asian PX units. In April, Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical, Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, etc. all experienced planned or unexpected shutdowns. Meanwhile, as the U.S. gasoline peak consumption season also approaches, Japanese and South Korean PX resources have begun to shift to the U.S. From April 1 to April 20, South Korea exported 24.55kt of PX to the U.S. It is projected that China’s PX import volume may be in the range of 650-750kt in Q2 of 2024.
What’s more, there are still many PX enterprises having turnaround schedules in Q2, including Dongyi Weilian Chemical’s 2,000kt/a unit, SK’s 400kt/a unit, Hanwha Total’s 700kt/a unit, Idemitsu’s 400kt/a unit as well as ENEOS’s 420kt/a unit. There are also some maintenance arrangements for the PTA units, but the demand performance will still be good as Formosa Chemical Industrial (Ningbo) and Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber, with a total PTA capacity of 4,500kt/a, have achieved stable production. therefore, China’s PX market will be in a destocking period in Q2.
To sum up, China’s PX imports are anticipated to decline in Q2, and the average import price will remain high and firm. Meanwhile, the trade partners, delivery and receipt places, as well as trade modes will change little.
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