Expanding Horizons: Africa as Emerging Market for China Polyolefin Exports
From January to October of 2024, China’s polyolefin export volume to Africa reached 387kt, with Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana as the key destinations. Specifically, Kenya received the lion’s share at 84.2kt, Nigeria came in a close second with an export volume of 78.8kt, followed by Ghana at 43.4kt.
Within the ambit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), a comprehensive, multilevel, and extensive trajectory of development has been charted for China-Africa economic and trade cooperation, setting new records in China-Africa goods trade, and witnessing steadfast development in China’s investments on the continent, with significant achievements in infrastructure collaboration. Since the inception of FOCAC, trade between China and Africa has skyrocketed, peaking at an all-time high of $282.1 billion in 2023, with China retaining its position as Africa’s first trade partner for the 15th consecutive year.
China’s Polyolefin Exports to Africa Totaled 387kt in January-October 2024
From January and October 2024, China exported a total of 387kt of polyolefins to Africa. Among the recipient nations, Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana were dominant, with specific emphasis on Kenya, which topped at 84.2kt, followed by Nigeria with 78.8k, and Ghana at 43.4kt.
China’s PE export volume to Africa totaled 128.2kt from January to October 2024. Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya again were the leading importers, with volume of 22.9kt, 20kt, and 16.5kt respectively. Meanwhile, PP exports to the continent amounted to 258.8kt, with Kenya (67.7kt), Nigeria (58.8kt), and Tanzania (29.9kt) leading the pack.
China stands as the most significant source of polyolefin imports for Kenya. As the third-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the region’s most diversified and mature economies, Kenya’s national economy pillars are agriculture, services, and industry. Traditionally, agriculture, tourism, and remittances are the nation’s foremost foreign exchange earners. Agriculture not only represents close to one-fifth of the national economy but is also a pivotal cornerstone. Meanwhile, the service sector, with its two-thirds GDP contribution, serves as a principal growth driver. It’s not just central to Kenya’s industry; reinforced by the nation’s steady economic march and the expanding middle class, the sector’s domestic market demand continues to grow. At present, the regional market is focused on the import of mid to low-tier, general-purpose materials. China’s polyolefin exports to Kenya are mainly primary forms of PP and LLDPE/HDPE such as film grade 7042, raffia grade PPH-T03, T30S, 1102K, injection grade 7260, 8008, and more.
China’s exports of polyolefin to Nigeria retain the second spot. Nigeria not only stands as a crucial trade partner and investment target for China in Africa but also as the main venue for Chinese contractual engineering services on the continent. In 2023, Chinese companies signed new engineering service contracts worth $10.45 billion in Nigeria, with operational turnovers reaching $3.98 billion. With the sustained high-level bilateral commitment to deepening collaboration under the Belt and Road initiative, China-Nigeria cooperation in infrastructure has borne noticeable fruit. Presently, Nigeria mainly imports general-purpose polyolefin materials and specialized materials for infrastructural uses. China exports chiefly primary forms of PP and LLDPE/HDPE to Nigeria, spanning grades such as 7042, 5502, 7260, etc., while specialized materials are predominantly HDPE for pipe, HDPE for bottle cap, and LDPE for cables.
African Polyolefin Capacity Totals 3,282kt/a
The polyolefin capacity in Africa stands at 3,282kt/a. The capacity of PP capacity is 1,482kt/a, with Egypt (600kt/a), Nigeria (127kt/a), and South Africa (755kt/a) housing the main units. The capacity of PE hits 1,800kt/a, mainly located in South Africa (740kt/a), Egypt (700kt/a), and Nigeria (360kt/a). To date, no new capacity addition plan has been heard in this region.
New Vigor in African Development through China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation
The FOCAC Summit in Beijing, spanning September 4-6, 2024, saw China unveiling various initiatives to catalyze African development. These efforts include broadening zero-tariff treatment and African nations’ agricultural product access, to partake in the Chinese market’s opportunities. China committed a not less than 70 billion RMB investment in Africa, coupled with launching the "Empowerment Plan for African SMEs," aimed at deepening industry and digital domain cooperatives. China will support 30 infrastructure and clean energy projects within the FOCAC umbrella. The initiatives are expected to ameliorate African development conditions and propel the continent’s industrial progression.
According to the General Administration of Customs of the PRC, from January to October 2024, China’s export volume of PE to Africa increased by 13.48% YoY, and that of PP grew by 147.61% YoY. The total export volume of polyolefin rose by 77.93% YoY. It is expected that by 2025, the growth of China’s polyolefin exports to Africa may remain strong, with an anticipated increase rate of 40%-50%.
In the future, with the deepening of China-Africa cooperation and the region’s economic ascent, polyolefin consumption in Africa is anticipated to climb further. China’s polyolefin capacity is in a phase of rapid growth, while at the same time, China’s domestic market is nearing saturation. This situation creates more opportunities for China to export polyolefin products to Africa.
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