China PVC Powder Exports Increased with Limited Support
Introduction: In 2024, China’s PVC powder exports continued their upward trend, with total exports from January to November reaching 2,384.4kt, already surpassing the total export volume for 2023. From a quarterly perspective, PVC powder exports in 2024 are expected to exceed 600kt in every quarter. In Q4, export orders were modest in October and November but improved in December. However, the overall impact of Q4 exports on the market remains limited.
Q4 PVC Powder Exports Likely to Exceed 600kt
As of now, Q2 2024 recorded the highest quarterly export volume of PVC powder, reaching 678.7kt. Q3 exports slightly declined to 634.8kt, while Q4 exports are expected to remain above 600kt. Entering Q4, uncertainties surrounding India’s BIS certification and the preliminary ruling on anti-dumping measures led to cautious buying interest from India. However, demand from regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia was relatively stable. Consequently, domestic export orders maintained baseline levels in October and November. In December, export orders improved slightly in the latter half of the month, with faster order fulfillment. Therefore, the overall export volume in Q4 is still anticipated to exceed 600kt.
Limited Foreign Demand Keeps Q4 Export Orders at Baseline Levels
Starting in October, domestic PVC powder market prices gradually declined, followed by export offer prices. Early in October, carbide-based PVC export prices were around $695/mt, while by late December, prices of calcium carbide-based PVC had dropped to approximately $627/mt, marking the lowest level of the year. Despite the lower prices offering a competitive edge in Q4, lackluster demand from China’s largest trading partner, India, prevented significant export growth. India’s cautious procurement was primarily due to uncertainties regarding BIS certification and the timeline for implementing the preliminary anti-dumping ruling. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East saw modest export increases supported by price advantages, though overall export orders remained at baseline levels.
December Export Orders Improved but with Limited Market Impact
India previously announced an extension of the PVC BIS certification implementation deadline to December 24, 2024. However, as of December 24, no official notice confirming the extension had been released. Market rumors suggested a likely 3-6 month delay and domestic exporters reported an increase in Indian orders, indirectly supporting the likelihood of a BIS extension. Currently, calcium carbide-based PVC export offers hover at $625-630/mt, while ethylene-based PVC is offered at $640-645/mt. Some PVC powder producers reported improved export orders to India, further substantiating the possibility of a BIS extension. However, any increase in export orders is expected to have a limited market impact due to the following: 1. Seasonal Weakness: The domestic market is gradually entering a low-demand season. 2. Supply Growth: A new 250kt/a PVC powder unit at SP Chemicals (Jiangsu) began to have a trail production on December 25, adding to supply pressure.
Overall, despite increased export orders in late December, high domestic supply levels and weak seasonal demand will likely limit the supportive effect of exports on the market.
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