2024-2025 China MTBE Annual Data Interpretation
China’s MTBE supply remained surplus from 2020 to 2024. Backed by the downstream consumption growth and notable increments in MTBE export volume, China’s MTBE output surplus was relatively low from 2022. Given changes in supply-demand pattern and exports, China’s MTBE prices rose and then went down in H1 2024. Entering Q3 2024, China’s MTBE market witnessed notable price declines and rebounded from low levels by the end of 2024.
MTBE occupies a middle position in the industrial chain. The entry threshold for the MTBE industry is relatively low, so the investment for establishing a new MTBE unit is small, and the relevant production and operation qualifications are easier to obtain. Accordingly, there are new entrants in the MTBE market. Coupled with the replacement of old capacity with and the new one, the number of MTBE enterprises is expected to further increase, intensifying industry competitions. Moreover, China’s MTBE market is mature, so the market growth may slow down. However, it is estimated that China’s MTBE capacity may expand dramatically in 2025, and China’s MTBE export volume may see rapid increments. Accordingly, China’s MTBE market attracts many market eyeballs in 2024.
2024 China MTBE Annual Data Change
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China’s MTBE export volume may rise by 23.70% YOY.
China’s annual MTBE export volume increased further in 2024, mainly due to the foreign demand gap, mature export channels, and China’s domestic oversupply pressure. According to GACC, China’s MTBE export volume totaled 1,967.4kt from January to September 2024, up 61.08% YOY. It is estimated that China’s annual MTBE export volume may reach 2,300kt in 2024, up 23.70% YOY. China’s MTBE export dependence degree may be 14.48% in 2024.
2019-2024 China MTBE Export Volume
China’s MTBE output may further increase in 2024 with the YOY growth rate of 8.20%.
China’s MTBE output ramped up on the whole from 2020 to 2024. Therein, the output in 2020 notched a five-year low in the wake of sluggish demand. Downstream demand gradually recovered from 2021, and China’s MTBE exports saw notable improvements from H2, 2022. Accordingly, profits from MTBE production witnessed dramatic rises, and the overall production enthusiasm improved, lifting China’s MTBE output. China’s MTBE output in 2024 may inch up YOY. It is estimated that the MTBE output and capacity utilization rate may be 15,886.7kt and 60.06%, up 8.20% and down 0.14% YOY respectively. MTBE products were still in a state of severe overcapacity. China’s MTBE output increased in 2024 mainly due to increasing exports and newly added capacity coming on stream.
2020-2024 China MTBE Output and Capacity Utilization Rate
China’s MTBE prices in 2024 may notably decline by 12.30% YOY.
China’s MTBE prices increased and then went down in H1 2024, with more notable price declines in Q3 2024. From January to October 2024, China’s MTBE prices averaged RMB 6,545/mt. It is estimated that the annual average price of MTBE in 2024 may reach RMB 6,351/mt, down RMB 891/mt or 12.30% YOY. The mainstream MTBE prices in 2024 saw notable YOY declines, but those in 2023 and 2024 rose and then declined. China’s MTBE prices increased and then decreased in H2 2023, but the mainstream prices were higher than those in H1 2023. However, China’s MTBE prices kept dipping in H2 2024, and mainstream MTBE prices largely remained lower than the annual average level. In 2024, the highest MTBE price was RMB 7,704/mt in mid-April. After mid-April, China’s MTBE prices moved downward with the price fluctuation of RMB 2,342/mt. In 2023, the highest price appeared in late September, with the highest price of RMB 8,134/mt, while the lowest price appeared in mid-December, with the lowest price of RMB 6,384/mt. A peak-bottom price spread was RMB 1,750/mt. China’s MTBE supply went up, but the demand for MTBE weakened somewhat in H2 2024, so the decline in MTBE prices enlarged in 2024.
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