May PX Prices to Fluctuate Notably
In April, mainly driven by cost, the Asian PX price first declined and then rose. As of April 28, the monthly average PX price was $753.3/mt CFR China and $733.3/mt FOB South Korea, down 10.18% and 10.43% MoM, respectively.
In April, U.S. “reciprocal tariff” concerns triggered recession fears, driving a risk-off plunge in crude oil prices to a four-year low and eroding PX cost support. Despite stable domestic PX operations, bearish sentiment intensified as PTA unit maintenance prospects and PX futures limit-down pressured prices. After the Qingming holiday, the PX price plunged $105/mt. Later, as Trump announced a suspension of special tariffs on some countries and granted tariff exemptions for certain goods, it spurred a rebound in the crude oil market. Coupled with the fact that domestic PX was still in a destocking cycle, participants’ confidence in the market outlook improved. In late April, PX prices bottomed out and rose, returning to around the $750/mt threshold.
Concurrently, PX operating rates continued to decline. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2,500kt/a unit remained shut, CNOOC Huizhou Refining & Chemical Phase II’s 1,500kt/a unit was shut since April 1 and may be restarted after two months, and PetroChina Sichuan Petrochemical’s 750kt/a unit operating below 50% from April 11 to April 24. Planned maintenance involves Sinopec Tianjin Company’s 270kt/a unit, Dalian Fujia Dahua Petrochemical’s 1,400kt/a unit, and Fujian Fuhaichuang Petrochemical’s 1,600kt/a unit. In addition, Hengli Petrochemical and Shenghong Petrochemical may cut operating rates in May, further tightening supply.
The monthly average PTA operating rate fell 0.14 percentage points to 77.6%. A 3,750kt/a unit in Northeast China resumed operations, while a 1,200kt/a unit in Northwest China, a 2,500kt/a unit and two 2,500kt/a units in South China, and a 1,000kt/a unit in Southwest China underwent maintenance shutdowns. Shandong Zhongtai Chemical Technology’s 1,200kt/a unit is scheduled to restart in early May, Zhejiang Jiatong Energy’s 2,500kt/a unit may be restarted on May 10, and Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1,000kt/a unit may be restarted on May 13. However, maintenance plans loom for Jiangsu Honggang Petrochemical’s 2,400kt/a unit, Formosa (Ningbo)’s 1,500kt/a unit, Hengli Petrochemical’s 2,200kt/a unit, Zhejiang Dushan Energy’s 2,200kt/a unit, and Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical’s 2,000kt/a unit from May to June.
Driven by ongoing tussles between cost fluctuations, supply-demand dynamics, and mixed market sentiment, PX prices are expected to fluctuate after bottoming out, with a slightly lower monthly average in May compared to April.
Crude oil prices may fluctuate downwards in May. The U.S. and Middle East negotiations may sustain geopolitical premiums. However, unresolved U.S.-China trade tensions and parallel tariff disputes with Canada and Europe limit upside momentum. OPEC+’s May production hikes and potential June output increases may reinforce bearish sentiment, keeping crude oil prices subdued.
In March 2025, domestic PX operations stabilized alongside rising imports, while steady PTA demand maintained a tight equilibrium. April saw sharp Asian PX supply cuts during the peak maintenance period, coupled with frequent PTA outages, driving strong inventory drawdowns. From May, domestic PX restarts and sustained PTA maintenance will gradually slow destocking.
High crude oil fluctuation may limit sustained PX cost support. Domestically, moderating PX supply declines and expanding PTA shutdowns highlight persistent imbalances. Despite 5,700kt/a of new PTA capacity expected in Q3, PX’s supply-demand tensions will linger, keeping May prices highly fluctuating.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
