LDPE Price to Edge Upin Mid-to-Late Jun amid Heavy Maintenance Season
Introduction: In early June 2025, LDPE prices across China’s three major regions trended upwards, lifting the average price level. As China’s domestic producers ushered in a peak maintenance period in late May and early June, the output loss due to maintenance in June is projected to rise by 40.43% MoM. What’s more, the import volume is expected to fall, so the overall supply in June is forecasted to decline by 16.96%. In terms of demand, the greenhouse film industry remains in its slack season, while the packaging industry witnesses steady demand. Amid the tug of war between supply and demand, LDPE prices are estimated to see modest gains in mid to late June, though upside potential stays constrained.
Broad-Based Gains Narrow Regional Price Spread
LDPE prices rose across North China, East China, and South China in early June, elevating the average price. As of June 10, 2025, the mainstream price of LDPE in North China was RMB 9,110/mt, up RMB 145/mt from late May, that in East China was RMB 9,250/mt, an increase of RMB 150/mt, and the mainstream price in South China hit RMB 9,275/mt, which increased by RMB 175/mt compared with that in late May.
Maintenance Shutdowns Increase and Import Dip Tighten Supply
The output loss due to maintenance in June is estimated at 71.2kt, a 40.43% MoM jump. Overhauls are expected to be seen at Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical, Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical Group and Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical, mainly in North China. China’s domestic output is projected at 249.8kt, down 14.57% MoM, with North China seeing the steepest drop. The import volume is also expected to shrink due to earlier U.S.-China tariff tension, which curtailed traders’ procurement from the U.S. Therefore, the overall supply in June may drop by 16.96% from that in May.
Demand: Packaging Holds Ground; Agricultural Film Lags
The lack of growth momentum in downstream orders restricted further operating rate hikes in the packaging industry. Nevertheless, downstream producers sustained relatively high operating rates, purchasing feedstock on a need-to basis and prioritizing digesting existing inventory over building up inventory of feedstock and finished products. The agricultural film industry was in its slack season, with order volume thinning. Amid sluggish demand, the operating rate of the industry slid to annul lows, curbing feedstock procurement.
Forecast: Tightening Supply to Nudge Prices Higher
With the peak maintenance cycle underway and ExxonMobil’s Huizhou LDPE unit startup delayed, supply constraints will intensify over the next month. Reduced U.S. imports may further deplete low-cost cargoes, accelerating consumption of social inventory and easing supply pressure. In terms of demand, the packaging industry may witness steady demand, while the agricultural film industry may still be in its slack season, which may barely support the LDPE market. Against this backdrop, LDPE prices are poised for moderate gains in mid to late June.
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