China PVC Export Saw YoY Growth in H1 2025
Preface: Due to the long-term oversupply, China’s PVC prices showed a downward trend in H1 2025, staying at a low level. As a result, China’s PVC exports improved significantly in H1 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. In H2, the oversupply is expected to continue, so exports are likely to maintain YoY growth. However, the PVC market in India and Southeast Asia will likely be in the slack season in Q3, coupled with the recovery of China’s PVC prices, so the growth in PVC exports in H2 2025 is expected to slow down.
Price advantages supported export growth in H1 2025.
China’s PVC prices showed a downward trend in H1 2025 amid the oversupply, with export prices also falling accordingly. China’s PVC prices remained at a low level in the international market, giving Chinese-made PVC resources a price advantage in exports. Therefore, foreign buyers maintained high enthusiasm for purchasing Chinese-made resources. In addition, the implementation and landing time of India’s BIS certification and anti-dumping policies were not finally determined in H1 2025. Thus, during the period when China’s PVC prices were low, some Indian buyers had the intention to stock up at low prices, resulting in phased over-purchasing behavior. China’s PVC exports maintained YoY growth in all months of H1 2025. According to GACC, China’s PVC exports in H1 2025 reached 1,960.5kt, a YoY increase of 50.26% compared with H1 2024.
In H1 2025, the proportion of China’s PVC exports to India and Southeast Asia accounted for more than half.
India remained the largest trading partner for China’s PVC exports in H1. The volume of China’s PVC exports to India in H1 2025 was 824.7kt, accounting for 42.07% of the total export volume. The implementation of India’s BIS certification, which was previously scheduled to start on June 24, 2025, was postponed to December 24, 2025. Moreover, India’s anti-dumping investigations on PVC imports from various regions did not yield clear results in the H1. Therefore, given that China’s PVC supplies had price advantages, Indian buyers still had a high intention to purchase Chinese-made PVC resources. In addition, there was significant uncertainty in India’s PVC import policies, so Indian buyers and traders engaged in overbuying during certain periods. As a result, the volume of China’s PVC exports to India in H1 2025 increased by 14.89% compared with the same period in 2024.
In H1 2025, the demand for PVC in Southeast Asia maintained a growing trend. In particular, after a large number of China’s PVC flooring enterprises relocated to Vietnam, Vietnam had a decent demand for low-priced Chinese-made PVC resources. Overall, the volume of China’s PVC exports to Southeast Asia in H1 reached 298.5kt, accounting for 15.22% of the total PVC exports, with a YoY increase of 52.44% compared with H1 2024.
The growth rate of China’s PVC exports may slow down in H2 2025.
Some PVC units are planned to be put into production in H2 2025, and it is expected that China’s PVC market may still face oversupply. Among the newly added units, most are capacity expansions of ethylene-based enterprises, and most of these enterprises have long-term export sales channels, with exports accounting for a relatively large proportion of their overall sales. Therefore, as these new units are put into production, China’s PVC exports are expected to maintain a YoY growth trend. However, in Q3 (July-September), India and Southeast Asia will likely be in the rainy season, and demand may be relatively weak. In addition, some Indian buyers engaged in overbuying in the early stage, which has overdrafted part of the demand in advance. Moreover, India’s anti-dumping ruling will likely be finalized in September, which may affect the enthusiasm of Indian buyers to purchase Chinese-made PVC resources in the future. In addition, since July, with the improvement of China’s macro atmosphere, PVC futures prices have risen, followed by the spot market. However, the quotation of Formosa Plastics (Taiwan of China) has not changed much compared with the previous period, so the price advantage of Chinese-made PVC resin resources has weakened compared with the earlier stage. Some foreign buyers have reduced their enthusiasm for purchasing amid wait-and-see sentiments.
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