China PVC Exports Remain Decent in Jan-Apr 2025
Introduction: China’s PVC exports from January to April showed significant YoY growth, primarily driven by competitive pricing advantages. However, over the next 1-2 months, this strong export momentum may moderate due to factors including the traditional slack season, rising ocean freight costs, and India’s BIS certification requirements.
PVC exports have been one of the few bright spots in demand this year, with a markedly higher volume in the first four months compared to the same period last year. This export performance contributed significantly to inventory drawdowns in April-May. Whether this export momentum can be sustained will be a key factor influencing future market trends.
PVC exports maintain notable YoY growth in April.
While PVC exports in April saw a slight MoM decrease, the YoY increase remained substantial. GACC shows PVC exports in April reached 360.2kt, down 1.67% from March but up 49.93% YoY. The total export volume from January to April was 1,336.5kt, up 54.26% YoY.
PVC export destinations remain largely unchanged.
In terms of export trade flows, the distribution pattern has shown little change this year, with exports primarily concentrated in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Central Asia. India continues to dominate as the top destination, maintaining its leading position. From January to April, the top five export markets were: India, Vietnam, the U.A.E., Uzbekistan, and Nigeria, with the total export volume being 817kt, accounting for 61.13% of total PVC exports.
PVC exports to India remained high.
India remains China’s most critical PVC trading partner, with its procurement volume serving as the primary determinant of China’s PVC export performance. PVC exports to India maintained sequential growth throughout the first four months. According to GACC, China’s PVC exports to India totaled 600.1kt during January-April, representing a 32.47% YoY increase. However, India’s share of total PVC exports declined slightly to 44.90% during this period, compared to 50.95% in 2023, primarily due to the growth in other export markets.
Price advantage serves as primary driver for significant export growth.
In 2025, China’s PVC market showed an overall weak performance, with persistent oversupply conditions showing no improvement. Domestic demand remained sluggish amid substantial planned capacity expansions and bearish macro atmospheres. These factors collectively contributed to pessimistic sentiments among market participants. PVC futures predominantly trended downward throughout the year, driving domestic prices to consecutive record lows. The export market maintained a close linkage with domestic pricing dynamics. Notably, 2025 export prices were significantly lower than 2024 levels. This substantial price competitiveness emerged as the key driver behind this year’s remarkable export volume expansion.
Strong export momentum may temporarily slow down.
The strong export momentum is expected to slow down in the near term, primarily due to three key factors.
First, India’s BIS certification deadline is set for June 24, and as of now, no Chinese PVC producer has successfully obtained the required certification. Since shipping from China to India takes approximately one month, suppliers risk having their cargo rejected upon arrival if they accept orders without certification. While there is a possibility that the BIS policy could be postponed again, most suppliers remain cautious in the absence of official confirmation.
Second, the recent surge in freight costs, driven by an unexpected rush for U.S.-bound exports following positive developments in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, has indirectly impacted PVC trade. Although PVC exports to the U.S. are minimal, rising global shipping rates have diminished China’s price competitiveness in other key markets.
Third, seasonal demand weakness is emerging as major PVC importers such as Southeast Asia and India enter the monsoon period, traditionally a slack season for construction and industrial activity.
These factors - BIS certification uncertainty, higher freight costs, and seasonal demand softening - are likely to weigh on China’s PVC export orders over the next 1-2 months. However, looking further ahead to August and beyond, export activity could rebound if the BIS deadline is extended and shipping costs stabilize, as China’s low-price advantage remains intact.
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