H2 2025 MTBE Prices to Drop with Supply Increment
In H2 2025, China’s MTBE supply may further rise with capacity expansion. Meanwhile, with the development of new energy vehicle and foreign demand weakening, the demand for MTBE may underperform. Moreover, the international crude oil prices may go down. Given the bearish factors, it is estimated that China’s MTBE prices may go down.
The international crude oil prices may go down.
There may be uncertainties in the international crude oil market. Given the geopolitical situation, macro economy and tariff policy, it is estimated that the international crude oil monthly average price may go down. However, given the demand peak season, easing tariff, and expectation for interest rate cut, the international crude oil prices may see periodical rebounds. Overall, the decline in the international crude oil prices may weigh down China’s MTBE prices.
China’s MTBE output may further rise with intensive capacity expansion.
China’s newly added MTBE capacity may total about 4,346.5kt/a in H2 2025, and most newly added MTBE units may adopt iso-butane dehydrogenation technology or integrated projects. Backed by the capacity expansion, China’s MTBE output in H2 2025 may increase from H1 2025. It is predicted that China’s MTBE output may total about 9,060.2kt in H2 2025, up 6.25% from H1 2025 and up 15.58% YOY. In 2025, China’s MTBE output may reach 17,587.1kt, up 11.11% YOY and intensifying the market competition.
The demand for MTBE may weaken with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry. SCI estimates that China’s MTBE consumption volume may be about 6,790.7kt in H2 2025, up 0.31% from H1 2025 and down 0.10% YOY. In 2025, China’s MTBE consumption volume may total about 13,560.7kt, up 0.41% YOY. Fueled by expanding charging infrastructure, China’s new energy vehicle industry expanded rapidly. Moreover, stimulated by the dual policy incentives, including purchase subsidies and tax exemptions, the new energy vehicle sales penetration kept rising and surpassed 50% in H1 2025. In China, MTBE is mainly arranged for lifting the octane value of gasoline, so changes in gasoline output exert significant impacts on MTBE consumption.
The growth of MTBE exports may slow down, so the support for easing oversupply pressure may weaken.
It is estimated that China’s MTBE export volume may rise in 2025, but the overall MTBE export volume in H2 2025 may be lower than that in H1 2025. In H2 2025, it is estimated that China’s MTBE export volume may total about 1,366.9kt, down 25.64% from H1 2025 and up 43.55% YOY. The foreign market may enter the gasoline consumption slack season in Q3, weighing down China’s MTBE exports.
The international crude oil prices may go down in H2 2025, weighing on China’s MTBE prices. Meanwhile, China’s MTBE output may rise notably, and the downstream demand may improve slowly. Besides, China’s MTBE export volume is likely to go down in H2 2025. Overall, it is estimated that China’s MTBE prices may increase at first and then go down in H2 2025, hovering at RMB 4,700-5,200/mt.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
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