H1 2025 MTBE Prices See Declines
China’s MTBE prices saw notable fluctuations and dropped dramatically in H1 2025. Entering H2 2025, China’s MTBE supply may further rise, but the overall demand may weaken. Meanwhile, the international crude oil prices may go down. Accordingly, it is estimated that China’s MTBE prices may continue declining in H2 2025, and the average price in H2 2025 may be lower than that in H1 2025.
According to SCI’s data, China’s MTBE prices averaged RMB 5,527/mt in H1 2025, down RMB 1,343/mt or 19.55% YOY. Therein, the highest MTBE price was RMB 6,471/mt in mid-January, and the lowest MTBE price was RMB 4,937/mt in the first half of May. The decline in China’s MTBE prices enlarged, due to the severer supply-demand imbalance.
China’s MTBE price trend in H1 2025 was mainly influenced by changes in supply and demand fundamentals and profits. In June 2025, given the international geopolitical changes, impacts of international crude oil price fluctuations on MTBE prices strengthened.
China’s MTBE supply increased, but the MTBE demand weakened.
China’s MTBE capacity expanded rapidly in 2025, and China’s MTBE capacity totaled 27,819.5kt/a as of the end of June 2024, up 7.27% from the end of 2024. According to SCI’s data, China’s MTBE output was about 8,524.91kt in H1 2025, up 8.75% YOY. Influenced by the notable increment in supply, MTBE prices and profits from MTBE production dropped notably in H1 2025.
China’s MTBE consumption volume may total about 6,770kt in H1 2025, up 0.93% YOY. It is predicted that China’s gasoline output may be about 75,997.6kt in H1 2025, down 5.97% YOY. Influenced by the decline in gasoline output, the consumption volume of oil-blending MTBE may inch down YOY. Meanwhile, the consumption of MTBE from the chemical sector may improve somewhat. Overall, China’s MTBE consumption volume in H1 2025 may see a slight YOY increment in H1 2025. However, the growth rate of MTBE consumption was notably lower than that of MTBE supply, weighing down MTBE prices and profits.
China’s MTBE export volume in H1 2025 may rise YOY but give thin support to alleviating oversupply pressure.
China’s MTBE export volume further increased in H1 2025. According to GACC’s data, China’s MTBE export volume totaled 1,443.1kt, up 8.57% YOY. It is predicted that China’s MTBE export volume may be 1,838.1kt in H1 2025, up 21.83% YOY. Against the backdrop of MTBE consumption growth slowing down and higher supply, the increment in export volume gave thin support to alleviating the oversupply pressure. Accordingly, China’s MTBE prices saw notable YOY declines.
Profits from MTBE production further declined.
In H1 2025, given the MTBE capacity expansion and improvement in LPG demand from the MTBE industry, the decline in LPG prices was lower than that in MTBE prices. Moreover, the increment in MTBE export volume gave thin support to alleviating the oversupply pressure. Therefore, China’s MTBE prices saw dramatic curtailments, weighing down profits from MTBE production and remaining negative for a long time.
The international crude oil prices declined.
H1 2025 witnessed broadly weak energy prices, with heightened macro risks and evolving supply-demand dynamics driving commodity prices under pressure. Intertwined macro, fundamental, and geopolitical factors periodically dominated the international crude oil market, sustaining frequent fluctuations in the international crude oil prices. Escalating tariff risks and worsening supply surplus expectations pressured the international crude oil prices downward. As a downstream crude derivative, MTBE prices maintained strong correlation with the international crude oil price trend, exhibiting broad declines in H1 2025.
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