Semi-Steel Tire: Q1-Q3 Production & Sales Grow with Q4 Export to Face Pressure
Introduction: From Q1 to Q3 2025, China’s semi-steel tire industry was strong. The domestic market sales rose, driven by the NEV market. The export orders were robust and increased at the same time. Thus, China’s total semi-steel tire output from Q1 to Q3 moved up YoY. In Q4, the EU orders are expected to significantly weaken, and China’s domestic market may maintain regular operation, failing to offset the export losses, which will likely put pressure on the overall production and sales.
From Q1 to Q3 2025, China’s semi-steel tire production and sales both saw YoY growth.
In the first three quarters, China’s semi-steel tire production and sales increased YoY. In China’s replacement tire market, consumers showed low willingness to replace tires and the newly added passenger vehicles had not yet reached the peak period for tire replacement, so the overall demand growth in the replacement tire market was limited. However, the rapid growth of NEV in China significantly boosted the production and sales of passenger vehicles. From January to August 2025, China’s passenger vehicle production reached 18.338 million units, with a YoY growth of over 10%, triggering a synchronous increase in the demand for OE semi-steel tires.
In the export market, despite ongoing trade frictions in 2025, the actual impact as of Q3 came from the EU’s anti-dumping investigation into Chinese passenger vehicle tires, which had a certain effect on China’s semi-steel tire exports. However, the drag on exports may be more evident in Q4, while China’s semi-steel tire exports were concentrated in Q3, bolstering the overall sales.
Jan-Aug 2025 China Semi-Steel Tire Production and Sales YoY Change
The EU orders have a strong impact on China’s semi-steel tire exports.
In recent years, the number of Chinese semi-steel tire enterprises has continued to grow, along with an expansion in capacity. These enterprises have actively explored overseas markets, triggering a steady increase in exports to the EU. Particularly as the U.S. has imposed escalating trade barriers on Chinese tires, some semi-steel tire exports have been redirected to the EU. Additionally, high energy prices in Europe over the past two years have led to the closure of some local tire enterprises. As a result, Chinese semi-steel tires have further expanded their market share in the EU due to their competitive cost-effectiveness. From January to August 2025, China’s semi-steel tire exports to the EU reached 613.73kt, accounting for approximately 27% of total exports, making the EU the largest export destination for Chinese semi-steel tires. EU export orders are crucial for China’s semi-steel tire export sector.
In 2025, China’s semi-steel tire exports performed relatively well overall. At the beginning of the year, influenced by the tariff issue, Chinese semi-steel tire enterprises actively engaged in exports, resulting in a strong export performance from January to May, with a YoY growth trend. On May 21, 2025, the EU announced an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese passenger car tires, affecting China’s semi-steel tire exports. In June, the EU market adopted a wait-and-see approach. Combined with the concentrated exports in previous months, the market focused on consuming the inventory, resulting in a slowdown in China’s semi-steel tire exports. The export volume in June saw a brief decline MoM and YoY, with the YoY drop reaching 11.76%. However, since the preliminary ruling of the EU anti-dumping investigation is scheduled for January 2026, along with a three-month retroactive period, its impact on China’s semi-steel tire exports to the EU is expected to manifest in Q4 2025. During Q3, within the EU tariff window period, China’s semi-steel tire enterprises actively pursued exports. However, considering the shipping schedule, some distant EU clients required shipments to be completed by August. As a result, China’s semi-steel tire enterprises prioritized advancing EU orders, triggering a peak in the first three quarters in July, followed by a decline in overall exports starting in August. As EU orders were gradually fulfilled, shipments to the EU further slowed in September, and it is anticipated that this may lead to a further decline in semi-steel tire exports. Nevertheless, thanks to proactive sales in the earlier period, China’s semi-steel tire exports were relatively fairish in the first three quarters. From January to August, the total semi-steel tire exports increased by 1.82% YoY.
China’s semi-steel tire market is expected to face pressure in Q4.
The biggest pressure on China’s semi-steel tire market in Q4 may lie in the export sector. While Q4 represents the peak production and sales season for China’s passenger vehicles, with high output levels expected to significantly boost demand, the approaching preliminary ruling deadline in the EU anti-dumping investigation is likely to lead to a notable decline in China’s exports to the EU.
China’s domestic market of semi-steel tires consists of the replacement tire market and the OE tire market. Historical data indicates that Q4 is the peak season for China’s semi-steel tire sales, primarily due to it being the production and sales peak season for passenger vehicles. The overall high output significantly drives the demand for OE semi-steel tires. In contrast, the replacement tire market may remain relatively stable. While increased consumer travel during holidays may provide some support for the replacement tire market, the extent is expected to be limited. Overall, the replacement semi-steel tire market is anticipated to be mainly stable. To summarize, China’s domestic semi-steel tire market in 2025 may continue to follow seasonal patterns, with Q4 being the peak demand season, and the fairish demand may drive up the overall production and sales to some extent.
In terms of export, China’s semi-steel tire export dependency is as high as 50.54%, with exports to the EU accounting for around one quarter of total exports. As the preliminary ruling deadline for the anti-dumping investigation approaches in Q4, shipments of semi-steel tires from China to the EU are expected to slow down significantly. This is likely to lead to a notable decline in semi-steel tire exports during this period, which may substantially drag down overall sales.
Overall, China’s semi-steel tire industry is likely to face considerable pressure on both production and sales in Q4. With the slowdown in exports, the tire inventory at tire enterprises is expected to pile up. Under the dual pressure of declining sales and growing inventory, tire enterprises will likely cut production, leading to a fall in tire output. This trend could potentially push the annual output growth rate from positive to negative territory.
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