China PVC Paste Market Forecast in Q2, 2024
Preface: PVC paste fundamentals can hardly improve notably in Q2. In addition, costs may give thinner cost support to the PVC paste market. Market players will likely hold bearish sentiments toward the market. Thus, SCI reckons that PVC paste prices will likely see an M-O-M decline.
PVC paste supply may see pressure due to limited unit maintenance.
The PVC paste industrial operating rate may remain high due to limited unit maintenance plants. The supply pressure is expected to rise further, denting the market price. If PVC paste prices drop notably, profits at PVC paste producers who purchase calcium carbide outside may turn from positive to negative. Profit changes should be noted, and several producers may advance unit maintenance plans.
PVC paste demand can hardly increase notably.
In Q2, glove material downstream enterprises may hold operating rates passable, propping up the demand. However, general material prices shrank from March, dragging down the glove material price. In addition, some glove material enterprises may show thinner demand for high-priced resources due to a certain amount of feedstock inventory. SCI projects that glove material prices will likely move down.
The leather product market, which is the downstream industry of general materials, may stay in the slack season. The demand from the coated fabric and toy industries may be stable. In Q1, PVC paste prices dropped, while plasticizer prices also moved down. Some downstream enterprises showed weak interest in purchasing amid bearish sentiments. In Q2, they may still purchase on a need-to basis amid cautious sentiments.
In terms of exports, it is expected that resources exported to Europe may decrease. A couple of producers may face higher sales pressure.
The integrated profit at chlor-alkali producers may shrink.
In Q2, calcium carbide prices are expected to dip due to increased supply and declined demand due to intensive PVC powder unit maintenance, giving thinner cost support to the PVC paste market. At the same time, caustic soda prices may also decrease due to the high operating rate and stable demand in April. End users may show tepid purchasing interest due to a certain amount of inventory. In May, caustic soda prices will likely rise backed by lower supply pressure as more units are planned to take overhauls. Entering June, caustic soda prices may go down under pressure during the traditional demand slack season.
On the whole, the PVC paste price may slide further. Some producers may advance unit maintenance plans or cut operating rates if they lose profits.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
