China Ethanol Import Volume Remained Low in Q1, 2024
Preface: In Q1, 2024, China’s import volume and export volume of ethanol were at a low level compared with the same period in the past five years. As of the end of April, the arbitrage window between China and overseas markets remained closed, and China’s ethanol import and export trade was not active. It is predicted that the import volume and export volume of ethanol will remain low in Q2.
Ethanol import volume stayed at a low level in Q1, 2024.
China’s ethanol import volume in Q1, 2024 rebounded from Q1, 2023. The import volume in January increased, but the increase was not sustainable. According to GACC, China imported 1,633.31mt of ethanol in Q1, up 3,238.94% Y-O-Y. Hereinto, the import volume of fuel ethanol was 1,620.21mt in Q1, up 5,179.63% Y-O-Y, while that of edible and industrial ethanol was 13.4mt, down 26.55% Y-O-Y. In addition, January saw the highest import volume at 1,606.416mt, with the import volume of fuel ethanol being 1,604.269mt.
In terms of trade partners, the top three import origins of ethanol were South Africa, France and Germany, with the import volume accounting for 98.21%, 0.88% and 0.47% of the total import volume respectively. In 2023, the import volume from South Africa only took up 0.01% of the total.
Ethanol export volume decreased Y-O-Y in Q1, 2024.
China’s export volume of ethanol fell by 10.9% Y-O-Y to 3273.42mt, mainly concentrated in edible and industrial ethanol. Hereinto, China exported 76.04mt of fuel ethanol and 3,97.38mt of edible and industrial ethanol. February witnessed the highest export volume of 1,207.54mt. In Q1, the new ethanol capacity increased, so the prices of edible and industrial ethanol and fuel ethanol went down amid fiercer supply competition. However, there were still few export negotiations, which had little impact on domestic market supply and demand.
In terms of trade partners, the top three export destinations of ethanol were the Netherlands, Taiwan of China and North Korea, with the export volume accounting for 530%, 15%, and 11% of the total export volume respectively. In 2023, the export volume of ethanol to the Netherlands accounted for 7% of the total export volume.
Ethanol import volume and export volume are expected to be low in Q2, 2024
Domestic ethanol prices continuously ebbed in Q1 due to sufficient supply. As of the end of April, there is a theoretical possibility of arbitrage from China to Europe and the U.S., but the operating space is still limited. China’s ethanol import and export trade activity is still low, and ethanol import volume and export volume in Q2, 2024 are expected to remain low.
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