PC Price Fluctuation Narrows Under Growing Dominance of Supply and Demand
In the recent five years, China’s PC market has witnessed a gradual transition from a relatively supply-demand balance to an oversupply. PC capacity is still expanding, intensifying the competition in the general-purpose PC market. Moreover, PC consumption is concentrated in traditional downstream fields, and the easement of supply-demand mismatch has been slow. Currently, the growth of Chinese-made PC supply is accelerating, further squeezing the market share of imported resources. Meanwhile, China’s domestic PC producers continue to seek a global development path, with the PC export volume rising year by year. As the supply and demand get out of balance, PC market price fluctuations are more dominated by supply and demand rather than cost. The PC prices in 2024 first rose and then dropped, and the price fluctuation range narrowed gradually in the second half of the year.
1. Sustained capacity and output growth led to relatively sufficient supply.
China’s PC capacity presented an uptrend from 2020 to 2024 despite a slowdown in growth, and the capacity layout was further improved, with East China remaining the major producing area. In 2024, China’s PC capacity was estimated at 3,790kt/a, up 360kt/a or 10.5% YoY. In May 2025, the 260kt/a PC unit at Hengli Petrochemical went into operation, filling the capacity gap in Northeast China whose capacity proportion climbed to 6.9%. In 2024, the PC industrial operating rate ran at a relatively high level, and the domestic PC output was predicted to increase by 19.9% YoY.
2. PC import volume decreased by 13.63% YoY with the acceleration of Chinese-made PC supply growth.
China’s domestic PC supply has remained in an uptrend in recent years. Influenced by this, the import volume of PC has shrunk year by year and is predicted to decline to 900kt in 2024, down 13.6% YoY, and the import dependence may drop to 26.9%. In 2024, the proportion of imports from Taiwan of China is projected to decrease by 8 percentage points YoY. For one thing, a five-year anti-dumping duty has been imposed on PC originating from Taiwan of China since April 20, 2024. For another, the tariff concession for PC originating from Taiwan of China has been suspended since June 15, 2024. As a result, the import cost of PC originating from Taiwan of China was enhanced, affecting the import volume.
3. PC export volume grew by 35.4% YoY to ease China’s domestic supply pressure.
As China’s domestic PC output continues to grow, the export market, as one of the important tools for domestic supply and demand adjustment, has become increasingly prominent. Meanwhile, the slow recovery of the global economy has brought opportunities for new international cooperation, so China’s PC producers and traders are actively expanding into overseas markets, leading to a further increase in export volume. It is expected that the total export volume may see a year-on-year growth of 35.4% in 2024. As for trade partners, China mainly exports PC to East Asia and Southeast Asia these years, and the volume of resources flowing into countries like South Korea and India has shown a clear uptrend in the recent five years.
4. PC price fluctuation range narrowed, with the direct influence of feedstock price changes weakening.
In 2024, China’s PC prices fluctuated at a relatively low level of recent five years. It is predicted that the average price of middle-end PC may drop by 4.26% YoY in 2024. Supply and demand were the major price drivers, while the influence of cost weakened gradually. In 2024, BPA prices ran at a relatively low level amid capacity expansion and supply-demand imbalance, which mainly shored up PC prices from the bottom. Based on the prices of certain mainstream Chinese-made PC grade and BPA in the East China market, the correlation coefficient is projected to drop to 0.11.
Forecast: China’s PC market prices are envisaged to fluctuate at lows in 2025.
SCI reckons that in 2025, China’s PC market prices may fluctuate at a low level amid the tug of war between supply and demand, and the direct impact of the cost side may continue to weaken. The price fluctuation range may narrow gradually, with high-end prices to face more downward pressure. On the cost side, the newly added capacity of BPA is estimated at 1,000kt/a in 2025, so BPA prices are likely to go down under pressure from supply growth, thereby slackening the cost support for PC prices. On the supply side, the PC industrial operating rate is predicted to stay at a high level in 2025, so the domestic PC supply may remain abundant, and the import volume of PC may continue to decline. On the demand side, PC consumption may be still concentrated in the traditional downstream fields. With the continuous progress of technology, the further improvement of the quality of consumer demand and the update and iteration of products, differentiated or personalized consumer products may promote the growth of consumption. In addition, the domestic PC producers expand new sales channels persistently on the basis of maintaining customer resources, which may further push up PC export volume.
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