Dec 2024 – Jan 2025 Methanol Import Volume Interpretation and Forecast
Influenced by more fluctuations in overseas methanol production, the arrival volume of cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East tends to decrease from December 2024 to February 2025. However, the arrival volume of non-Iranian cargoes in December is predicted to increase, given the delayed arrival of some cargoes and other factors. Overall, the methanol import volume in December is estimated at 1,110.3kt, up 25.2kt or 2.32% MoM.
With more methanol units shut down, the arrival volume of cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East saw a notable decline in December. However, the cargo from Oceania, a certain country in Europe and non-Iranian countries in the Middle East increased. For one thing, the suppliers needed to complete their contract delivery for the full year. For another, some non-Iranian units resumed production successively in Q4.
The arrival volume of cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East is estimated at 757.5kt, down 7.85% MoM. The arrival volume of cargo from a certain country in Europe is projected to increase by 76.27% MoM to 118kt. There was almost no cargo from Qatar, New Zealand and Chile last month, while the total arrival volume of cargoes from these three countries is predicted to rise to 158.1kt in December.
It is predicted that the volume of imported cargoes flowing into important downstream plants may further climb to about 96kt, taking up over 85% of the total imports. Many important downstream plants with expectations of import reductions have begun to purchase Q1 2025 imports in advance so as to maintain future stable operations. According to a few downstream plants, despite purchasing forward month cargoes in advance, they still need to flexibly optimize feedstock costs via many methods in view of tight merchantable resources and high costs as well as more uncertainties in the later period.
Recently the higher prices in overseas markets have attracted more resources, so the volume of non-Iranian cargoes to China is anticipated to decrease. Meanwhile, the supply from a certain country in the Middle East may continue to decline due to intensive unit shutdowns. Therefore, SCI predicts that China’s methanol import volume may drop to 900-920kt in January 2025.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
