2024 Edible and Industrial Ethanol Output Hit New High
Introduction: In 2024, China’s edible and industrial ethanol output was 6,878.3kt, the highest output so far in history. Although the fermented ethanol industry faced heavy pressure, the output of synthetic ethanol increased significantly, driving the output growth in 2024. It is predicted that the edible and industrial ethanol output in China will continue to rise in 2025, affected by the increase in output of synthetic ethanol.
China’s edible and industrial ethanol output set a new record in 2024, and the proportion of synthetic ethanol output leveled up.
According to SCI, China’s edible and industrial ethanol output in 2024 was 6,878.3kt, an increase of about 491.3kt or 7.69% YoY. The capacity of synthetic ethanol grew rapidly, with application fields expanding. The production cost of synthetic ethanol was lower than that of fermented ethanol, which drove the growth of China’s edible and industrial ethanol output. In 2024, China’s synthetic ethanol output totaled 1,013.9kt, up 601.6kt or 145.92% YoY. The output of synthetic ethanol exceeded that of cassava-based ethanol and was only lower than the output of grain-based ethanol. Therefore, the synthetic process became the second-largest ethanol production process in China. In 2024, the proportion of grain-based ethanol output was still large, with an annual output of 4,879.7kt, accounting for about 70.97% of the total output in China.
In 2024, the edible and industrial ethanol output in Northeast China declined, while that in East China, Central China, and Northwest China rose.
In 2024, the edible and industrial ethanol output in Northeast China was 2,308.4kt, down 27.9kt or 1.19% YoY and accounting for 34% of the total in China, down 3 percentage points from 2023. The production losses of grain-based ethanol in Northeast China increased, affecting the production enthusiasm of ethanol producers. East China took second place in edible and industrial ethanol output, with the proportion up 1 percentage point YoY to 24%. The output in East China in 2024 was 1,624.2kt. The output of cassava-based ethanol by the traditional production process in East China dropped rapidly. Due to the long period of production losses, the number of cassava-based ethanol producers in the region increased. However, with the commissioning of Anhui Tanxin Technology’s methanol-based ethanol unit, the overall output in East China saw an upward trend in 2024. In Central China, there were two reasons for the increase in ethanol output. On the one hand, the ethanol output in Henan went up because the cost of corn-based ethanol was once better than that in Northeast China. On the other hand, the unit at Henan Liyuan Coal Industry ran stably, and the growth in output of methanol-based ethanol also boosted the output in Central China to rise in 2024. In Northwest China, the ethanol output was mainly pushed up by the higher output at Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Yushen Energy and Chemical in 2024 compared to 2023.
The structural changes in the output of edible and industrial ethanol in 2024 showed a new trend in the development of the ethanol industry, which will also affect the development of the ethanol industry in 2025.
The probability of continued growth in the output of edible and industrial ethanol in China in 2025 is still high, mainly because the output of synthetic ethanol still has room for growth. In 2025, there will be new capacity of synthetic ethanol to be put into production. In Q4 2024, Shandong Hengxin Group’s unit was already in the trial run. In addition, Henan also has a unit that is constructed and waiting to be put into production. If there is no major fluctuation in feedstock prices, the output of coal-based ethanol in 2025 will increase by at least 600kt compared with 2024. With the decline in profits of major fermented ethanol producers, most industry players tend to believe that the output of fermented ethanol will slide in 2025. However, considering the large increment in coal-based ethanol output, it is expected that China’s edible and industrial ethanol output in 2025 will be slightly higher than that in 2024.
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