China PVC Exports Remain Strong in Jan-May 2025
Introduction: In 2025, the price of China’s PVC powder remains at a low level in the global market, giving it obvious export price advantages. From January to May, export volume increased significantly YoY, with India and Southeast Asia still being the most important export trade partners. It is expected that the export price advantage of China’s PVC powder will likely continue in the future, and low-price export orders can still be sustained.
In 2025, PVC powder exports have been one of the few bright spots in demand. From January to May 2025, the total export volume of PVC powder was 1,698.5kt, an increase of 56.07% compared with 1,088.3kt in the same period last year. Although domestic demand was tepid in H1, due to the expansion of exports, the social inventory of the PVC powder industry has gradually declined since March, the fundamental situation has improved, and it has formed a certain support for the market. Whether exports can be maintained in the future will become an important factor affecting market trends.
PVC exports remained high in May.
In May, China’s domestic PVC export volume increased slightly MoM, and the YoY growth rate was still significant. According to GACC, PVC export volume in May was 361.9kt, an increase of 0.47% MoM and 63.09% YoY. From January to May, the total export volume of PVC was 1,698.5kt, an increase of 56.07% compared with the same period last year.
PVC Powder Export Destinations Remain Stable
In terms of export trade flow, the overall pattern has shown little change this year, mainly concentrated in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, Central Asia, etc. India has consistently ranked first in export share. From January to May, the top five export destinations were India, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, and Nigeria, with a total export volume of 1,032.6kt, accounting for 61.13% of the total exports.
Sustained High Exports to India
India is the primary trading partner for China’s PVC powder, with its export share increasing in recent years. The procurement rhythm and volume of the Indian market determine China’s PVC powder exports. According to GACC, from January to May, the total PVC exports to India reached 763.1kt, a year-on-year increase of 31.63%. The export share to India during this period was 44.93%, slightly lower than 53.27% in the same period last year, mainly due to higher YoY growth in other regions. Urbanization and infrastructure demand are accelerating in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia, driving export growth in these regions compared to the same period last year.
Export Price Advantage: Trading Price for Volume
In 2025, the overall atmosphere of China’s PVC powder market has been poor. The industry’s supply-demand imbalance is difficult to fundamentally change. Domestic demand underperforms, and the macro environment has also been subdued, leading to insufficient confidence among market participants. PVC futures have generally trended downward, with domestic prices continuously declining. Export prices are closely linked to the domestic market. The export price of PVC powder in 2025 is significantly lower than that in 2024, making price advantage the primary driver of export volume growth this year. Moreover, amid increasing domestic supply pressure, traders’ enthusiasm for exports and order intake has significantly increased.
Uncertainties Persist, but Exports Remain Promising in H2 2025
Exports grew rapidly in the first half of the year, with sample enterprises’ weekly average order intake at 23.8kt. From late May to mid-June, South Asia gradually entered the rainy season, coupled with rising ocean freight and uncertainties in India’s BIS certification, leading to a temporary decline in procurement from India. However, procurement enthusiasm remained passable in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Since mid-June, there have been reports of possible delays in India’s BIS certification and a potential anti-dumping ruling in July, leading to increased inquiries from India and improved domestic export orders.
Although factors such as India’s anti-dumping measures, the rainy season, and ocean freight may disrupt the export market in the second half of the year, domestic market prices will likely remain low, maintaining export price advantages. Demand is expected to continue growing in Southeast Asia, Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, etc. Thus, H2 export volume is still anticipated, though YoY growth may weaken compared to the first half.
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