China Benzene Import Dependence Degree Analysis

China Benzene Import Dependence Degree Analysis

The benzene import dependence degree fluctuated upwards these years andpeaked in 2017 at 21.87%. The total import volume and the apparent consumption volume of oil-based benzene are estimated at 2,350kt and 12,130kt respectively in 2018. Thus, the import dependence degree is 19.4% (import dependence degree= import volume/apparent consumption volume).

Remarks: The aboveimport dependence degree is calculated based on the consumption volume ofoil-based benzene. If the consumption volume of coal-based benzene is added,the value will be a little bit lower. For example, the import dependence degreeis supposed to be 15% in 2018.

China is the largest consumer of benzene globally, and theself-sufficiency rate is high. The large benzene capacity coupled with the supply of coal-based benzene owing to the unique development of the coal chemical industry contributed to the high self-sufficiency rate. Hence, the imported benzene is only a supplement after years’ development.

SCI holds that there will be a supply shortage of benzene in the next few years, and the import dependence degreewill be around 15%. Several super-large refining-chemical integration projects will start during the 13th Five-Year Plan, which will lead to the explosive growth of the aromatics industry. The scale of benzene upstream and downstream industries will also grow. The import volume of benzene will move sideways. Overall, it will be difficult for the import dependence degree to exceed 20% (based on the above calculation) in the next few years.

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