IIR: Supply-Demand Imbalance Intensified with Continued Imports Increase in 2025
Introduction: From January to August 2025, China’s IIR import volume reached 233kt, up 30.9kt or 15.32% YoY. With the increase in IIR imports, the supply-demand imbalance in the Chinese market intensified, leading to a long-term downward trend in IIR market prices. In H2 2025, the import volume of IIR is expected to remain at a high level, and market supply may continue to be relatively loose.
The import changes of IIR and HIIR showed differences.
From January to August 2025, China’s regular IIR import volume reached 115.2kt, up 34% YoY, driven by the increased imports from a certain European country and Singapore. Meanwhile, China’s HIIR import volume reached 117.8kt, up 1.48% YoY. The import volume from a certain European country decreased, restraining the overall HIIR imports. In consequence, the import changes of IIR and HIIR showed differences.
China’s sources of IIR imports remained largely stable, but the import volume from these sources saw some adjustments.
From the perspective of regular IIR, from January to August, the regular IIR imported from Russia, Singapore, and India ranked the top three, the same as last year. Among them, Russia was the largest source, with imports of 94.4 kt, up 77.18% MoM and 43.24% YoY, accounting for 81.98% of the total. Singapore followed in second place with 12.8 kt, up 1.71% MoM and 83.74% YoY, accounting for 11.15%. India ranked third, with imports of 3.2 kt, down 32.74% MoM and 41.45% YoY, accounting for 2.79%. China’s sources of regular IIR saw little change. However, with production units in Singapore and Russia operating normally, exportable supplies increased. As one of its major export destinations, China drove the overall domestic import volume of regular IIR to increase.
From the perspective of HIIR, from January to August, the HIIR imported from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Canada ranked the top three, the same as last year. Among them, Russia was the largest source, with imports of 50.1 kt, up 14.28% MoM and down 12.1% YoY, accounting for 42.52% of the total. Saudi Arabia followed in second place with 35.2 kt, up 36.93% MoM and 24.73% YoY, accounting for 29.88%. Canada ranked third, with imports of 11.9 kt, down 26.91% MoM and 0.03% YoY, accounting for 10.12%. China’s anti-dumping policy on HIIR gradually took effect, and the import of some resources was curbed. The overall import volume changed insignificantly YoY.
Increased imports intensified supply-demand imbalance, weakening the mainstream market prices.
In 2025, China’s IIR import volume further increased, and import resources were relatively ample. In addition, domestic production units mostly maintained normal operation. Consequently, the market supply remained loose. Meanwhile, impacted by the domestic and overseas economic environment, some downstream rubber industries showed tepid operational enthusiasm. During this year, IIR demand showed weak performance, and the intensified supply-demand imbalance dominated the market. In that context, domestic producers and traders faced high sales pressure, and holders faced high pressure on inventory. The IIR market lacked effective price support and remained in a weak adjustment trend for a long time.
Imports are likely to remain at a high level overall from September to December, and the sources of imports may further change.
From the perspective of H2 2025, Geopolitical conflict may sustain. China is expected to remain the main export market of a European country, and IIR origins may be changed slightly. However, as a result of China’s anti-dumping of HIIR, imports from Japan and Canada may be restrained, and the import volume of these two countries is expected to decline. Overall, the majority of imported resources of IIR are expected to continue replenishing from September to December, while the import of certain grades may be somewhat affected.
During the peak season in September and October, downstream application companies are overcoming the impact of high temperatures, with some enterprises seeing improvements in new orders. Additionally, certain downstream buyers are stocking up ahead of the National Day holiday, which may lead to increased demand and positively influence market sentiment. On the other hand, although some domestic units are scheduled for maintenance in October and November, high social inventory levels coupled with sustained import replenishment may keep the market in a state of oversupply. Trading activity is likely to remain subdued. With supply and demand dynamics unlikely to provide effective momentum for the market, the room for price rebound in IIR may be relatively limited.
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