Highlights
China’s PVC market prices fluctuated violently in 2020, which also impacted PVC import and export markets. According to the import and export data from January to April 2020, it was seen that import and export markets were tepid. But in the future months, PVC import volume is projected to increase, while export volume will remain low.
Regarding this year’s import and export markets, market participants have always felt that the volume of imports will increase substantially, and the export window is basically closed, but the impact on the market has not been reflected. Judging from the data released by the customs for the first four months, imports and exports have decreased year-on-year. The import volume from January to April was 187,000 tons, the export volume during the same period was 192,000 tons, and the net export volume was 0.5 million tons. The specific situation is analyzed as follows:
First, let’s look at the export market. According to customs data, the PVC export market in the first four months of this year was tepid. Except for the relatively obvious increase in export volume in March, the export volume in other months was lower than that in the same period. The export volume of PVC from January to April was 192,300 tons, down 8.38% year-on-year.
In general, it is considered that export volume is high in February, March and April. However, due to the high domestic prices in January and February 2020, export arbitrage was in a loss state, and the export enthusiasm of enterprises was not good. The domestic export arbitrage window only opened after the sharp decline in domestic prices in March, which supported the export volume in March. Then, the favorable support in April weakened and the export volume decreased.
With the rebound in domestic prices since April and the impact of foreign prices plummeting, exports once again suffered a significant loss. It was difficult for traders to export, and only a small number of producers maintained their export business. It is expected that export volume from May to June will also decline.
Judging from the import data, the import data of the first four months that was released by the customs was tepid. From the comparison of domestic and foreign prices from January to April, the import price is higher than the domestic market price, and the import is at a loss. From January to February, affected by the Chinese holiday, the buyers’ enthusiasm for taking orders is not high, and the import volume is low. It increased slightly in March but collapsed again in April due to the overseas public health events. According to customs data, the import volume of PVC from January to April was 187,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.14%.
After April, the profit of imported materials has increased significantly, especially in April when the foreign market demand has dropped sharply, and a large number of sources have been exported to China. The turnover of imported sources has increased significantly, but considering the shipping schedule, the arrival time will be concentrated in In May, June and July. The growth rate of imports arriving at ports in these months is expected to increase significantly.
It can be seen from the data of the previous four months that the PVC export volume is always lightly higher than import volume. From the comparison of domestic and foreign prices, the export volume is expected to remain low from May to July, while the import volume is expected to increase obviously, so import volume will exceed export volume. With demand from foreign countries rallying, SCI predicts that PVC import volume will decrease in September.
