2021-2022 China Propylene Market Annual Data Interpretation
Lead: In recent years, the propylene supply-demand pattern has gradually shifted from a tight balance to a loose supply. The import volume of propylene gradually declined, but the export volume rose significantly. At the same time, the influence logic on the propylene market price also changed. In 2021, the propylene supply grew notably Y-O-Y, and the export volume doubled. The rising prices of feedstock gave stronger support to the propylene market, but the increment in prices of propylene was smaller than that in the cost, so the industry profit shrank.
Key data interpretation
1. The propylene price in 2021 is estimated to rise by 17.79% Y-O-Y.
In 2021, the mainstream market price of propylene rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 17.79%. The annual market price was mainly impacted by the cost, supply, demand and other factors. Hereinto, the cost and demand were the main drivers for propylene price changes. In 2021, the prices of crude oil, propane, coal and methanol went up, raising the production cost of propylene and giving stronger support to the propylene market. The main downstream PP and propylene price trends had a strong correlation. The PP price fluctuated near the cost for a long time, and the profitability and operating rate of the PP industry directly affected the demand for propylene. The supply volume and price of other downstream chemical products both rallied, and the overall production profit performed well, underpinning the propylene demand. The newly added capacity of propylene continued to be released, but the overall impact was still controllable. In 2021, due to the open of the arbitrage window for deep-sea resources, China’s import volume of propylene was low, but the export volume surged, easing the supply pressure to some extent. In addition, other factors such as the public health event and extreme weather also had a phased impact on the production of propylene upstream and downstream products and logistics and transportation.
2. The propylene production profit in 2021 is estimated to decrease by 25.37% Y-O-Y.
In 2021, the profit of the propylene industry shrank significantly, and the annual average production profit of oil-based propylene was estimated to fall by 25.37% Y-O-Y. The price of propylene feedstock rallied greatly Y-O-Y, raising the production cost of propylene via different production technologies, especially the methanol-based and coal-based production technologies. During the year, although the propylene production was profitable overall, the overall profit lowered notably Y-O-Y. Hereinto, the production profit of methanol-based propylene dropped by more than 100% Y-O-Y, which was the largest decrease.
3. The total supply volume of propylene in 2021 is estimated to mount by 17.34% Y-O-Y.
In recent years, the continuous and rapid capacity expansion has become a highlight during the development of the propylene market, and the propylene supply pattern is gradually changing. In 2021, the propylene capacity continued to expand, with a year-on-year increase of 16.15%. The expansion of propylene capacity accelerated, with many newly added PDH and refining-chemical integration projects, which showed an obvious trend of diversification, integration and large-scale. Accordingly, the propylene output also increased. In 2021, China’s output was estimated to rise by 18.56% Y-O-Y. During the year, many propylene units took turnarounds, so the increase in output was mainly boosted by the capacity expansion. As an important supplement to China’s domestic propylene market, imported propylene was related to China-origin propylene in terms of volume and price change. The narrowing supply gap of propylene in China squeezed the import market share, leading to a decline in import volume. China’s propylene import volume fell slightly in 2021, and it was predicted to drop by 0.28% Y-O-Y. Overall, the rapid growth of propylene capacity has resulted in a large increment in market supply. In 2021, China’s total supply of propylene will increase by 17.34% Y-O-Y.
4. Propylene export volume in 2021 is estimated to increase notably by 646.27 Y-O-Y.
In 2021, China’s export volume of propylene surged, and it was estimated to rise by 646.27% Y-O-Y. On the one hand, as the propylene supply gap in China narrows, the export of propylene will be a general trend, and more propylene companies will seek export opportunities. Therefore, the export volume of propylene will continuously grow. On the other hand, the growth of export volume is more than expected, driven by the arbitrage window for deep-sea goods. On the whole, although China’s export volume of propylene increases significantly, it is still very low compared with the supply volume and import volume in China. At present, the impact of export on the propylene market is limited, but players should continue to pay attention to the export.
1. What are the economics of different production technologies and the profitability of downstream industries?
2. How does the supply-demand pattern and regional trade flow of upstream and downstream products change?
3. What will happen to the production technology, scale, layout and supporting capacity of newly added capacity in the future?
4. What are the scale of industry consumption, inter-regional consumption capacity, and new consumption opportunities?
SCI’s 2021-2022 China Propylene Market Annual Report will show you detailed and comprehensive data, as well as the in-depth market analysis. The report will display the changes in the industry pattern through the supply-demand balance, interpret the industry development through focus events, and analyze and forecast the industry trends with high attention.
2021-2022 China Propylene Market Annual Report
In 2021, the propylene market still undergoes rapid capacity expansion. The mainstream price of propylene moved up notably year-on-year with the increase in costs. The growth rate of propylene capacity continues to increase, and many refining-chemical integration and PDH units are put into operation, which pushes propylene capacity to an all-time high. It is only a matter of time before propylene capacity reaches 50 million mt/a. Correspondingly, the downstream demand expands synchronously, and the newly added capacity of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, etc. is released continuously. The trend of diversification, integration and scale of the propylene market becomes more obvious. The number of market players keeps rising, and market competition becomes fiercer. In addition, propylene futures are in the stage of research and preparation, which may provide more choices to market players but will also bring greater uncertainty.
How will new propylene and its downstream capacity evolve in the future? What will happen to the production technology, scale and regional layout of the new capacity? How does the market develop? SCI’s 2020-2021 China Propylene Market Annual Report will show you detailed and comprehensive data, as well as the in-depth market analysis. The report will display the changes in the industry pattern through the supply-demand balance, interpret the industry development through focus events, and analyze and forecast the industry trends with the high attention.
SCI’s 2020-2021 China Propylene Market Annual Report will analyze market drivers in depth and present through the most detailed fundamental data, which will help you to conduct industry research, analyze the market, make decisions and improve efficiency. The analysis of the industry chain and value chain will help you to study from the perspective of industry and make strategic decisions. After years of accumulation and precipitation, SCI’s propylene annual report has become the reference basis for decision-making by many large-scale industry customers in the industry, and the industry value has gradually increased.
Report Value
1. Deep analysis of the value chain, and the horizontal and vertical study of the competitiveness based on the industry perspective
2. Comprehensive analysis on the upstream and downstream markets and supply-demand fundamentals, and the observation of the propylene market from the whole industry chain
3. Analysis of the cost and profit via different production technologies, and the all-round interpretation of the competitiveness among propylene production technologies
4. Detailed market forecast, and all-round and multi-angle research on the future market development
Comprehensive and Integrated Coverage
10-Year Supply-Demand Data | 3-Year Price Forecast | Supply-Demand Balance, Evolution and Forecast
Value Chain, Market Drivers and Competitiveness Analysis
Reliable Intelligence
600 Analysts | First-Hand Data | Scientific Fundamental and Price Methodology | Independent Position
Deep-Dive Spotlights Interpretation
Capacity Expansion | Production Technology | Industry Events | Propylene Futures | Related Product Co-Movement
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